Making The Grade: Comparing Tools Grades Of Top 100 Prospects Past And Present

Luis Robert, OF, White Sox

Robert finished runner-up to Gavin Lux for the 2019 Minor League Player of the Year award, acknowledging a season in which he climbed from high Class A to Triple-A while showing incredible power and speed. He hit .328 with 32 home runs and 36 stolen bases and enters 2020 as the No. 2 prospect in baseball. Robert shares similarities with Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. when he was a prospect.

	Age	Year	Hit	Pow	Run	Fld	Arm
Luis Robert	22	2020	55	70	70	60	70
Ronald Acuña Jr.	20	2018	60	70	70	70	60

Acuña won Minor League POY honors in 2017, when he also climbed from high Class A to Triple-A and hit .325 with 21 homers and 44 steals. He entered 2018 as the No. 1 prospect in baseball and went on to win National League Rookie of the Year that season.

The key differences between the two players are that (1) Robert, because of his Cuban heritage, was three years older than Acuña when he signed, and (2) Robert is not viewed as the same caliber hitter as Acuña was as a prospect.

Wander Franco, SS, Rays

Franco enters 2020 ranked as the No. 1 prospect in baseball based on his otherworldly hitting acumen and power potential as a teenage middle infielder who is ready for Double-A. Last season he hit .327 with nine homers, 27 doubles and more walks (56) than strikeouts (35).

	Age	Year	Hit	Pow	Run	Fld	Arm
Wander Franco	19	2020	80	60	50	55	50
Bo Bichette	21	2019	70	60	50	50	55
Jurickson Profar	20	2013	70	60	55	65	60

Given Franco’s unique characteristics, including his youth, it’s difficult to find an exact match in the prospect annals. However, the Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette is a direct contemporary who has a similar offensive profile with good but not outstanding defensive potential.

Though Jurickson Profar’s career has not met expectations—in part because he lost the better part of two years in his early 20s to injury—he was a phenom who like Franco ranked as the No. 1 overall prospect in the game in 2013. The year before, Profar had hit .281 with 14 homers, 26 doubles and nearly as many walks (66) as strikeouts (79) at Double-A.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

Rodriguez appears to be the latest in a line of young Dominican hitting prodigies, e.g. Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr., who are rewriting the rules of player development. Rodriguez is coming off an age-18 season in which he hit .326 with 12 home runs and 26 doubles in 84 games while reaching high Class A in his full-season debut.

	Age	Year	Hit	Pow	Run	Fld	Arm
Julio Rodriguez	19	2020	70	70	45	50	70
Bryce Harper	19	2012	60	80	55	60	80

Rodriguez’s tools and trajectory most closely resemble another wunderkind with a right field profile: Bryce Harper. Harper spent all but the first month of his age-19 season in Washington. Rodriguez has a chance to factor for the Mariners in 2020, albeit with a second-half ETA a best-case scenario.

CJ Abrams, SS, Padres

The sixth overall pick in June, Abrams shredded the Rookie-level Arizona League in his debut, winning the batting title (.401), swiping 15 bases and finishing second in on-base percentage (.442) and slugging (.662). While the AZL is a hitter’s league, batting .400 at any level is an achievement, especially for a teenager making his pro debut.

	Age	Year	Hit	Pow	Run	Fld	Arm
CJ Abrams	19	2020	70	55	70	60	55
Tim Anderson	23	2016	60	55	70	55	55

Abrams shares similarities with White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson, who in 2015 hit .312 with five homers and 49 stolen bases at Double-A. Anderson has always been held back by low walk rates and high chase rates, which were not evident for Abrams in his pro debut, thus the more optimistic view of his hit tool.

Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

Pearson drew buzz in his draft year for hitting 100 mph in a bullpen session while at JC of Central Florida. The 6-foot-6 righthander has improved the touch on his slider as he has climbed the ladder and now sits at the precipice of the big leagues despite missing essentially all of 2018 to a fractured forearm.

	Age	Year	FB	CB	SL	CHG	CTL
Nate Pearson	23	2020	80	45	60	55	55
Jon Gray	22	2014	80	—	70	55	60

Heading into the 2013 draft, Jon Gray ranked as the No. 1 prospect on the BA board. He fell to the Rockies at No. 3 but zoomed to the majors by the end of 2015. Coming out of college, Gray was a big-bodied righthander who had hit 100 mph in his draft year while throwing an outstanding slider. Thus the similarities with Pearson are easy to see.

Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners

Kelenic’s wide-ranging tool set has prospect hounds and Mariners fans excited. He began his full-season debut last year at low Class A and finished it at Double-A, hitting .291 overall with 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases.

	Age	Year	Hit	Pow	Run	Fld	Arm
Jarred Kelenic	20	2020	70	60	55	50	60
Oscar Taveras	22	2014	75	60	50	55	60

The Cardinals’ Oscar Taveras entered 2014 ranked as the No. 3 prospect in baseball and made his big league debut that May 31. He scuffled more than expected but made the postseason roster and went 3-for-7 with a homer. Less than two weeks later he died in a traffic collision in his native Dominican Republic.

In other words, we will never know what type of player Taveras might have become, though it’s fair to map his abilities to those of Kelenic, right down to being a lefthanded-hitting center fielder who might fit best on a corner in the big leagues.

Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Athletics

Luzardo has ranked as the No. 1 lefthanded pitching prospect in 2019 and 2020. He remains prospect eligible this season only because a lat injury limited him to 43 minor league innings and six September big league relief appearances in 2019.

	Age	Year	FB	CB	SL	CHG	CTL
Jesus Luzardo	22	2020	60	55	—	70	60
Julio Urias	19	2016	60	60	—	60	60

Given Luzardo’s pitch mix and poise, scouts have no problem projecting him to the role of No. 2 starter in the big leagues. The same was true of Dodgers lefthander Julio Urias when he was a prospect, and both southpaws are similar in stature. Urias was waylaid by shoulder surgery in 2017 and 2018 and then a domestic violence suspension in 2019, so he hasn’t come close to meeting expectations.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics

Puk might have been the most talented prospect in the 2016 draft, but he slipped to the Athletics at No. 6 overall because of shaky control. Oakland helped streamline his delivery to throw more strikes without sacrificing stuff, and he led all minor league starters with 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 2017. Puk lost 2018 to Tommy John surgery and this season will attempt to establish himself in the Oakland rotation.

	Age	Year	FB	CB	SL	CHG	CTL
A.J. Puk	25	2020	70	—	70	50	50
Carlos Rodon	22	2015	65	—	70	50	45

Fellow college lefthander Carlos Rodon had designs on being drafted No. 1 overall heading into his junior year before falling short of expectations. Both he and Puk are slider-oriented starters with big fastballs, shaky changeups and scattershot command. Both also have Tommy John surgery on their résumés after Rodon had the procedure in 2019.

Cristian Pache, OF, Braves

Pache has long drawn praise for his Gold Glove potential in center field. He also throws and runs at near top-of-the-scale levels. Pache spent the bulk of 2019 at Double-A and reached Triple-A thanks to the rapid offensive growth he has shown in the past two seasons. He hit .277 with 12 homers and eight steals overall.

	Age	Year	Hit	Pow	Run	Fld	Arm
Cristian Pache	21	2020	45	60	70	70	70
Gregory Polanco	22	2014	60	60	70	70	70

Finding a prospect who matches Pache’s unique skill set is a challenge. The closest match is probably the Pirates’ Gregory Polanco, who in 2013 hit .285 with 12 homers and 38 steals in a season spent primarily at Double-A. But that is an imperfect fit because of Polanco’s higher perceived offensive ceiling, height (6-foot-5), batting hand (left) and imminent shift to right field in 2014.

In reality, Pache could resemble Twins center fielder Byron Buxton, though Buxton’s tools, including 80 speed and 80 defense, were regarded as a grade or two higher across the board when he was a prospect.