CWS Preview, Bracket One — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects

Baseball America’s Mike Lananna breaks down the College World Series teams.

MIAMI

CWS History: 25th appearance (second straight), 4 titles (last in 2001).

How They Got Here

Turning Point: There wasn’t much need for a turning point for a Hurricanes team that won 50 games and lost just two series all year. The Hurricanes did, however, finish with a flourish after losing a home series to defending national champion Virginia April 22-24. They went on to win 13 of their last 15 games leading up to the ACC tournament, including a season-ending series win against Florida State.

Low Point: With the No. 2 RPI in the country, the Hurricanes truly don’t have any poor losses on their schedule. Their only series losses came to No. 1 Florida in the second week of the season and to Virginia in late April. Both series losses came at home—where it would’ve been nice to win—but those are minor, nitpicky quibbles on a stout resume.

Looking Ahead

X Factor: The only area where Miami is lacking heading into Omaha is its starting pitching depth. The health of sophomore righthander Jesse Lepore (9-0, 2.20), who was unable to start the final game of the super regional with shoulder tightness, is something worth watching. He’s been a key part of the Miami pitching staff. The Hurricanes don’t have an overpowering starter, relying more on command and feel. They lean lefthanded with veterans Michael Mediavilla (11-1, 3.11) and Danny Garcia (9-4, 3.48). Will the Hurricanes have enough pitching to get through Omaha—especially if they find themselves in the losers bracket? The key could be junior closer Bryan Garcia, one of the more experienced closers in the college game.

How They Win: The Hurricanes won 50 games for a reason. They have a deep, dynamic lineup with power in the middle in the form of Zack Collins (.357/.538/.649, 15 home runs) and Willie Abreu (.286/.357/.519, 12 home runs), speed at the top with Carl Chester (16 steals in 26 attempts) and some veteran swagger, provided by the likes of the bat-flipping Edgar Michelangeli. They’re an experienced club with solid, albeit not spectacular, starting pitching, a lockdown a closer and a .983 team fielding percentage. They’re a complete team and should be a force in Omaha.

OKLAHOMA STATE

CWS History: 20th appearance (last in 1999), one title (1959).

How They Got Here

Turning Point: The Cowboys solidified second place in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech—who swept them earlier in the season—with an important series win against fellow College World Series team Texas Christian on April 22-24. The series was the peak of a strong season-ending stretch for the Cowboys, who won 12 of their last 14 games in the regular season and won all five of their NCAA tournament games.

Low Point: The low point came at the very beginning as the Cowboys opened the season 2-5 and lost four straight games in walk-off fashion—including all three games of a series at North Carolina. That opening was somewhat fluky as all five losses were one-run games away from home, but Oklahoma State quickly righted the ship upon returning to Stillwater and found the situational hitting it needed to finish on the right side of close games.

Looking Ahead

X Factor: The Cowboys have had a toy dinosaur in their dugout since the Big 12 tournament named Utropolis that has “fueled our offense for the last three weeks,” said junior catcher Collin Theroux. More important than that toy rally animal, though, is the leadership of senior shortstop Donnie Walton. The switch-hitter is batting .342/.434/.450 in the middle of Oklahoma State’s order, and much of the Cowboys team revolves around him. A four-year starter, Walton’s father Rob is the pitching coach and played for four College World Series teams at Oklahoma State. Walton provides experience, cool confidence and is the best all-round player on the team.

How They Win: Pitching and defense. The Cowboys have allowed just six runs in five NCAA tournament games and have been rolling with a front two of junior righthanders Thomas Hatch and Tyler Buffett and a versatile reliever or starter in righthander Trey Cobb. It’s a group that pitches to contact and allows a solid defense behind it to make plays. Offensively, the Cowboys aren’t as potent as some of the offenses in the field, but senior Conor Costello has been swinging a hot bat, and Dustin Williams will run into one on occasion (14 home runs). But in general, the Cowboys win with pitching, defense and timely hitting.

ARIZONA

CWS History: 17th appearance (last in 2012), 4 titles (last in 2012).

How They Got Here

Turning Point: Led by first-year head coach Jay Johnson, the Wildcats appeared to truly find themselves in the Lafayette Regional. A No. 2 seed, the Wildcats lost to host Louisiana-Lafayette in the second game of the regional and then won three games in a 30-hour span to come through the loser’s bracket. Those wins propelled the Wildcats going into Starkville, Miss., where they shocked the Bulldogs by sweeping two straight.

Low Point: The Wildcats were swept at Utah in the beginning of April, the only time they were swept all year, finishing off a week in which they also lost one of two to UC Riverside. To Arizona’s credit, the team got back on track quickly, winning each of its next three series, including a sweep at California.

Looking Ahead

X Factor: Two-way player Bobby Dalbec has had a down year with the bat compared to last spring—although the Red Sox still took him in the fourth round as a third baseman—but he’s provided tremendous value on the mound. Primarily a reliever, the righthander threw 8 2/3 scoreless innings on 129 pitches in the Wildcats’ 1-0 win over Mississippi State, and he could continue to wear many hats for Arizona in Omaha. Dalbec can still also change a game with at the plate, as well. He has the best raw power on the team.

How They Win: The Wildcats are an athletic, speedy bunch that rely on veterans such as Cody Ramer and Zach Gibbons at the top of the order to help make the offense go. Though not particularly deep on the mound, the Wildcats have pushed the right buttons with their pitching staff so far, relying heavily on senior righthander Nathan Bannister, lefthander J.C. Cloney and mixing and matching with Dalbec, Kevin Ginkel and Cameron Ming in multiple roles. The key will be to find a way to effectively and efficiently stretch out those pitchers over the two weeks in Omaha.

UC SANTA BARBARA

CWS History: First appearance.

How They Got Here

Turning Point: The Gauchos struggled down the stretch, but they recovered at just the right time in the Nashville Regional, winning all three games they played against Washington and Xavier and finding some offense in a 14-5 regional-clinching win. They’ve gone on to win all five of their tournament games, including the shocking Louisville Super Regional Game Two in which freshman Sam Cohen hit a pinch-hit, walk-off grand slam against Louisville closer Zack Burdi. Simply put, the Gauchos have picked the perfect time to heat up.

Low Point: UCSB was, at one point, in the hosting discussion before injuries struck and the team started reeling in the final third of the season. The Gauchos went 7-8 in their last 15 regular season games, bookending that stretch with RPI-draining series losses against UC Davis (No. 224 RPI) and UC Riverside (No. 151 RPI).

Looking Ahead

X Factor: Austin Bush, a 6-foot-6, 265-pound first baseman/DH, went off in the Nashville Regional, hitting four home runs, including a walk-off shot in the 14th inning against Washington. He cooled somewhat against Louisville, facing two tough lefthanders in Brendan McKay and Drew Harrington, but Bush has game-changing power and provides the bulk of the thump in UCSB’s lineup. Offensive struggles were largely the culprit for the Gauchos’ late-season woes. They need someone to produce, and Bush could very well be that someone.

How They Win: The Gauchos have a legitimate ace in junior righthander Shane Bieber (12-3, 2.84) but behind him, UC Santa Barbara is a little thinner and less experienced than it has been in years past. Righthanders Noah Davis and Joe Record have good stuff but have lacked consistency, and for the Gauchos to win, they’ll likely need to provide quality starts. Lefthander Kyle Nelson will likely see a lot of time out of the bullpen as a moment-of-truth reliever. Offensively, the Gauchos will need Andrew Calica and his .441 on-base percentage to set the table at the top of the lineup and for the likes of Bush, Devon Gradford and J.J. Muno to continue to produce.