Ask BA: No. 1 Pick To No. 1 Prospect?

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Q:Which of the 2016 draft crop become their respective team’s No. 1 overall prospect once they sign?

J.P. Schwartz
Springfield, Ill.

BA:This was a relatively deep draft, but it wasn’t a great draft. There were no players who separated themselves from the pack. The lack of difference between the No. 1 and the No. 10 player explains how A.J. Puk and Kyle Lewis could slide from top three consideration to sixth (Puk) and 11th (Lewis).

That also explains why there aren’t that many teams where a draft pick would vault immediately to No. 1 on their prospect list.

We’ll actually be updating our prospect lists in our midseason prospect update that will be unveiled in July. We’ll follow the same rules we use then for eligibility: any prospect who has exceeded rookie eligibility this season is not eligible, as is anyone currently in the big leagues–so Julio Urias, Blake Snell, etc., are not considered prospects for these purposes.

And we’re going to assume everyone signs for the purposes of these back-of-the-napkin rankings. And this is a rough estimate. There’s no promise some of these won’t change for the midseason update.

Interestingly, none of the top five picks leaps to No. 1 on their team’s list. No. 1 pick Mickey Moniak is not going to top shortstop J.P. Crawford. Third baseman Nick Senzel makes a strong case to be on top of the Reds’ list but Cody Reed is a big league-ready lefthander with two plus pitches and a track record of minor league success. Senzel has to wait a little longer.

Ian Anderson doesn’t come close to topping the Braves’ list. Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies and others lead one of the deepest systems in baseball.

The Rockies are also extremely deep. As talented as righthander Riley Pint is, Brendan Rodgers and David Dahl are closer to the big leagues with explosive tools of their own.

And fifth pick Corey Ray could top several team’s prospect lists, but he was picked by Milwaukee, a rebuilding team with a top 10 prospect (Orlando Arcia) fronting their farm system.

But Oakland, picking sixth, is the first team to have a new No. 1. Here are the six teams who have a new No. 1.

Athletics: Lefthander A.J. Puk leaps over Franklin Barreto and Matt Chapman.

Marlins: This one is easy. Lefthander Braxton Garrett is the new No. 1. Righthander Tyler Kolek is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Garrett’s upside is significantly higher than first baseman Josh Naylor, last year’s first-round pick.

Tigers: The No. 1 prospect coming into the season, Michael Fulmer, has graduated in fine fashion. Righthander Matt Manning leapfrogs everyone else in the Tigers’ system.

White Sox: Catcher Zack Collins’ combination of patience and power makes him a relatively easy choice now that Tim Anderson is in the big leagues.

Mariners: Until draft day, no one expected to see College Player of the Year Kyle Lewis fall to No. 11. Lewis is an easy choice to be the new No. 1 for the Mariners.

Angels: The Angels’ farm system is the thinnest in baseball, so almost anyone Los Angeles picked would be the new No. 1, but Matt Thaiss’ combination of hitting ability and developing power make him the best prospect in the Angels’ system by a significant margin.

In case you are wondering, the closest call among other teams was the Orioles. Chance Sisco vs. Cody Sedlock is a difficult decision, but again, we’ll give the edge—for now—to the player who has already reached Double-A.