An Analytical Look At Minor League Free Agents

Starting pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff and passable control. Middle infielders with power. These commodities are in short supply on the minor league free agent market because teams tend to hoard them on 40-man rosters.

The outlook for teams trying to add minor league system depth in other areas—such as speed, corner power, dependable middle-infield defense, effective bullpen help—is considerably more favorable.

For many fans, even hardcore Baseball America prospect watchers, those players who hit the minor league free agent market are simply names on a computer screen. So in this piece I will attempt to add context to those names, with a focus on younger free agents. To do this I determined league percentile ranks for major component statistics—where higher is always better—for all 534 minor league free agents in this year’s pool and ranked them accordingly.

In particular, I examined batting average, isolated slugging, speed score, walk rate and strikeout rate for position players. A similar process is carried out for pitchers except that home run rate per nine innings replaces ISO and groundout-to-airout ratio replaces speed score. Position players are split into two groups: catchers, second basemen and shortstops (middle) in one corner and then first basemen, third basemen and outfielders (corner) in the other. Starting pitchers and relievers also are separated into two groups—15 batters faced per game is the dividing line—though I did not compute percentile ranks for relievers.

If nothing else, I hope this piece helps answer the question: Why did my team sign that guy?

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Best Hitter

While batting average fails to capture overall player value as well as other statistics, it has currency because of its transparency and simplicity. A .300 average on the 20-80 scouting scale translates to a 70 grade, while those who hit .320 on a consistent basis are 80 hitters.

The overall minor league average is about .255, with some leagues falling well south of that (Gulf Coast, .241; New York-Penn, .243) and others running much hotter (Pioneer, .286; Pacific Coast, .269).

BATTING AVERAGE (C, 2B, SS)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	AVG	Percentile
1	Iribarren, Hernan	Reds	2b	32	IL	410	.327	98%
2	Maggi, Drew	Dodgers	ss	27	TL	220	.299	95%
3	Calixte, Orlando	Royals	ss	24	TL	152	.295	92%
4	Butler, Dan	Red Sox	c	30	IL	169	.308	92%
5	Joseph, Corban	Orioles	2b	28	IL	313	.305	90%
6	Rosa, Garabez	Orioles	2b	27	EL	476	.303	90%
7	Serna, K.C.	Phillies	ss	27	EL	381	.295	86%
8	Reyes, Robelys	D-backs	ss	26	CAL	222	.298	86%
9	Pinto, Josmil	Brewers	c	27	PCL	315	.308	84%
10	Freitas, David	Cubs	c	27	SL	272	.286	81%

In Focus: Orlando Calixte spent the 2015 season on the Royals’ 40-man roster before being non-tendered that December. He re-signed with Kansas City on a minor league deal for 2016 but looked elsewhere this fall, quickly agreeing to a deal with the Giants. Calixte has shown an intriguing blend of raw ability in the minors: plus bat speed, average wheels, fringe power at times and the versatility to play shortstop, second base, third base and center field.

The Giants subsequently added Calixte to the 40-man roster on Nov. 18 to shield him from selection in the Rule 5 draft.

BATTING AVERAGE (1B, 3B, OF)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	AVG	Percentile
1	Montero, Jesus	Blue Jays	1b	26	IL	518	.317	95%
2	Denker, Travis	D-backs	3b	31	SL	257	.303	93%
3	Bernard, Wynton	Tigers	of	26	EL	263	.308	91%
4	Mitchell, Ronnie	Marlins	of	25	SL	169	.298	89%
5	LaMarre, Ryan	Red Sox	of	27	IL	358	.303	89%
6	Shuck, J.B.	White Sox	of	29	IL	170	.299	88%
7	Murton, Matt	Cubs	of	35	PCL	255	.314	87%
8	Herrera, Rosell	Rockies	of	24	EL	494	.292	83%
9	Curtis, Jermaine	Reds	3b	29	IL	346	.291	81%
10	Huffman, Chad	Tigers	1b	31	IL	511	.286	80%

In Focus: Jesus Montero finished fifth in the International League batting race this season and owns a career Triple-A batting line of .305/.357/.491 in 2,406 plate appearances. He also owns a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned stimulant in September, and he must serve that suspension before he can play for a new organization. Still, Montero has an intriguing blend of hitting ability and power to all fields (spray chart).

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Best Power

Isolated slugging percentage measures a batter’s extra bases per at-bat and is highly dependent on league context. For example, the spread of ISO values ranges from about .140 (Pioneer, Pacific Coast, California) down to about .100 (Gulf Coast, New York-Penn, Florida Sate). While ISO is not the best judge of raw power because batters are penalized for outs made, it is a simple means of determining usable power.

ISOLATED SLUGGING  (C, 2B, SS)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	ISO	Percentile
1	McKenry, Michael	Brewers	c	31	PCL	199	.245	91%
2	Quiroz, Guillermo	Indians	c	34	IL	297	.183	87%
3	Arencibia, J.P.	Rays	c	30	IL	372	.179	85%
4	Sawyer, Wynston	Orioles	c	25	CAR	379	.181	84%
5	Pinto, Josmil	Brewers	c	27	PCL	315	.210	83%
6	Pena, Roberto	Astros	c	24	TL	217	.173	79%
7	Thon, Dickie Joe	Blue Jays	2b	25	FSL	429	.142	78%
8	Brantly, Rob	Mariners	c	27	PCL	315	.188	78%
9	Bueno, Ronald	Reds	2b	24	FSL	173	.139	76%
10	Burg, Alex	Rangers	c	29	TL	219	.168	76%

In Focus: The Dodgers quickly signed San Diego high school product Wynston Sawyer when he hit the minor league free agent market this fall. An Orioles eighth-round pick in 2010, he experienced a breakthrough offensive season at high Class A Frederick in 2016, hitting .281 with good power and excellent strikeout (81st percentile) and walk rates (96th) in the Carolina League. Sawyer played first base and DH as much as catcher this season, but he hovered near average in terms of throwing out basestealers and preventing passed balls when behind the plate.

ISOLATED SLUGGING (1B, 3B, OF)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	ISO	Percentile
1	Denker, Travis	D-backs	3b	31	SL	257	.251	99%
2	Arias, Junior	Giants	of	24	SAL	223	.232	98%
3	Decker, Cody	Red Sox	1b	29	EL	257	.249	98%
4	Dugan, Kelly	Cubs	of	26	SL	322	.204	97%
5	Fox, Jake	Phillies	1b	34	EL	471	.231	97%
6	Glaesmann, Todd	D-backs	of	26	SL	147	.201	96%
7	Washington, David	Cardinals	of	25	PCL	401	.272	95%
8	Huffman, Chad	Tigers	1b	31	IL	511	.219	93%
9	Quintana, Gabriel	Padres	3b	24	TL	487	.202	92%
10	Choice, Michael	Indians	of	27	IL	276	.210	91%

In Focus: A number of young-but-flawed power hitters are available in the corner-bat bin of the free agent market, many for the first time. Junior Arias and Kelly Dugan were previously available in the class of 2015, so focus instead on Todd Glaesman, a power-speed outfielder who lacks plate discipline; David Washington, a 6-foot-5, lefthanded hitter with power (46 homers the past two seasons) and patience; Gabriel Quintana, a third baseman who hit 20 homers (but not much else) in a severe pitcher’s park; and Michael Choice, the 10th overall pick in the 2010 draft whose career has stalled at Triple-A.

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Best Speed

I created a simple weighted speed metric, inspired by Bill James’ speed score, that places batters on a similar scale as isolated slugging. It factors stolen-base attempts, triples and runs scored (minus home runs) as a percentage of times a batter becomes a baserunner, i.e. hits (minus homers), walks and hit-by-pitches. The resulting speed metric has little absolute value because low levels of the minors feature higher rates of triples, stolen-base attempts and miscues, but it has relative value as I apply it here.

WEIGHTED SPEED (C, 2B, SS)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	SPD	Percentile
1	Calixte, Orlando	Royals	ss	24	TL	152	.286	99%
2	Tovar, Wilfredo	Twins	ss	25	IL	494	.211	96%
3	Reyes, Robelys	D-backs	ss	26	CAL	222	.240	94%
4	Negron, Kristopher	Cubs	ss	30	PCL	419	.208	94%
5	Watkins, Logan	Cubs	2b	27	PCL	378	.207	94%
6	Coyle, Sean	Angels	2b	24	TL	176	.200	93%
7	Vinicio, Jose	Red Sox	ss	23	IL	178	.180	92%
8	Thon, Dickie Joe	Blue Jays	2b	25	FSL	429	.199	89%
9	Maggi, Drew	Dodgers	ss	27	PCL	162	.190	88%
10	Coleman, Dusty	Royals	ss	29	PCL	207	.182	85%

In Focus: The Twins signed Wilfredo Tovar as a minor league free agent for the 2016 season and he met expectations at Triple-A Rochester. He made a ton of contact and showed speed with 29 stolen bases but made little impact with the bat. It’s on defense where Tovar shines. The five-time best defensive infielder in the Mets system recorded more assists (+48) and turned more double plays (+8) than the average International League shortstop would have in the same number of games.

WEIGHTED SPEED (1B, 3B, OF)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	SPD	Percentile
1	Perez, Eury	Astros	of	26	PCL	146	.269	99%
2	Bernard, Wynton	Tigers	of	26	IL	163	.233	99%
3	Adams, Lane	Yankees	of	27	EL	332	.259	98%
4	Wilson, Kenny	Marlins	of	26	PCL	358	.212	94%
5	Campana, Tony	White Sox	of	30	IL	232	.189	94%
6	Ford, Darren	Giants	of	31	PCL	171	.206	93%
7	Ford, Darren	Giants	of	31	EL	258	.211	92%
8	Perez, Juan	Cubs	of	30	PCL	415	.195	91%
9	den Dekker, Matt	Nationals	of	29	IL	421	.174	90%
10	Lipka, Matt	Braves	of	24	SL	244	.218	90%

In Focus: Many of these players have 40-steal seasons on their minor league résumés, and they will continue to receive looks for as long as they keep showing plus wheels. Lane Adams stole a career-high 44 bags this year to rank eighth in the minors, while Eury Perez (40-plus steals three times, high of 64), Wynton Bernard (twice, 45), Kenny Wilson (three times, 55), Tony Campana (twice, 66) and Darren Ford (three times, 69) are some of the most reliable speed-based players in the game.

Campana has the most big league experience—and even stole 30 bases for the 2012 Cubs—while Ford has amassed 449 steals in the minors to easily lead all active players.

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Best Patience • Batters

A batter’s minor league walk rate (as a ratio of plate appearances) can be deceptive, but the following players stand far above the field for their plate patience. And a patient batter is more likely to see a pitch he can drive.

WALK RATE (C, 2B, SS)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	BB%	Percentile
1	McKenry, Michael	Brewers	c	31	PCL	199	20.1	100%
2	Walsh, Colin	Athletics	2b	27	PCL	245	16.7	99%
3	Lerud, Steven	Giants	c	32	EL	214	17.8	98%
4	Rodriguez, Josh	Athletics	ss	31	TL	208	14.4	96%
5	Soto, Elliot	Marlins	ss	27	PCL	190	14.7	96%
6	Sawyer, Wynston	Orioles	c	25	CAR	379	16.6	96%
7	Diaz, Jonathan	Yankees	ss	31	IL	371	12.7	93%
8	Wong, Joey	Rockies	ss	28	PCL	312	13.5	92%
9	Adams, David	Blue Jays	2b	29	IL	236	12.3	92%
10	Lavarnway, Ryan	Blue Jays	c	29	EL	272	12.5	90%

In Focus: Wynston Sawyer makes another appearance here, and he’s really the only under-30 player on this board who has any other offensive attribute going for him this season.

WALK RATE (1B, 3B, OF)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	BB%	Percentile
1	Marrero, Christian	Phillies	of	30	EL	244	18.9	99%
2	Olt, Mike	Padres	3b	28	TL	195	15.9	99%
3	Fernandez Jr., Alex	Tigers	of	23	GCL	105	16.2	97%
4	Denker, Travis	D-backs	3b	31	SL	257	15.2	97%
5	Moncrief, Carlos	Giants	of	28	EL	209	13.4	95%
6	Terdoslavich, Joey	Orioles	1b	28	EL	459	13.1	94%
7	Krauss, Marc	Mets	1b	29	PCL	272	14.0	94%
8	Heathcott, Slade	White Sox	of	26	IL	216	12.5	93%
9	Curtis, Jermaine	Reds	3b	29	IL	346	12.1	91%
10	Puello, Cesar	Yankees	of	25	IL	289	12.1	90%

In Focus: As one-time Top 10 Prospects who have yet to receive extended trials in the majors, Slade Heathcott and Cesar Puello are probably the most interesting names here. Myriad injuries (Heathcott) and a Biogensis suspension (Puello) have held them back, but both demonstrated patience and speed in the International League in 2016. Puello, who is from the same Mets international signing class that produced Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte, even hit .283 with a 142 OPS+.

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Best Contact • Batters

Strikeout rates tend to run higher in short-season leagues, but the overall full-season minor league rate hovers near 20 percent.

STRIKEOUT RATE (C, 2B, SS)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	SO%	Percentile
1	Astudillo, Willians	Braves	c	25	SL	342	3.2	100%
2	Joseph, Corban	Orioles	2b	28	IL	313	10.2	98%
3	Castillo, Wilkin	Blue Jays	c	32	EL	152	9.9	97%
4	Castro, Daniel	Braves	ss	24	IL	229	10.9	96%
5	Lombardozzi, Steve	Nationals	2b	28	IL	246	11.0	95%
6	Jones, Corey	Tigers	2b	29	EL	435	12.0	94%
7	Tovar, Wilfredo	Twins	ss	25	IL	494	11.9	93%
8	Torres, Kevin	Rangers	c	26	CAL	181	12.7	93%
9	Falu, Irving	Royals	2b	33	PCL	172	12.2	91%
10	Valenzuela, Ricardo	Padres	c	26	CAL	144	13.2	91%

In Focus: The Venezuela-born Willians Astudillo never walks, has bottom-of-the-scale speed and hits for very little power. Yet the 5-foot-9 righthanded batter has by far the best contact ability in the minors, and he caught 75 games at Double-A Mississippi while holding his own defensively. Astudillo had more extra-base hits (13) than strikeouts (11) in the Southern League, and the same was true in the Florida State and South Atlantic leagues before that.

STRIKEOUT RATE (1B, 3B, OF)
No	Batter	Org	Pos	Age	League	PA	SO%	Percentile
1	Shuck, J.B.	White Sox	of	29	IL	170	7.6	100%
2	Kotchman, Casey	Blue Jays	1b	33	IL	376	8.5	100%
3	Bourgeois, Jason	White Sox	of	34	IL	374	8.6	99%
4	Rosario, Rainel	Red Sox	of	27	EL	354	12.1	93%
5	Curtis, Jermaine	Reds	3b	29	IL	346	12.4	92%
6	Tejada, Luis	Padres	of	24	CAL	180	12.8	92%
7	Campana, Tony	White Sox	of	30	IL	232	12.5	92%
8	Hoes, L.J.	Orioles	of	26	IL	443	13.1	91%
9	Murton, Matt	Cubs	of	35	PCL	255	12.5	89%
10	Pena, Ismael	Mariners	of	20	AZL	155	13.5	89%

In Focus: The most notable player here is probably corner outfielder-first baseman Luis Tejada, whom the Angels quickly signed this fall. The 24-year-old, righthanded-hitting Dominican exercised plate discipline while showing power (31 doubles-plus-triples, 11 homers) at three levels of the Padres system.

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Hardest To Hit • Pitchers

The same caveats apply to pitchers as they do batters with regard to batting average. However, flyball pitchers tend to allow lower opponent averages than groundball pitchers because balls hit in the air fall for hits less frequently than ground balls.

OPPONENT AVERAGE (Starters)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	AVG	Percentile
1	Zeid, Josh	Mets	rhp	29	EL	54	.211	94%
2	Hall, Brooks	Brewers	rhp	26	SL	75	.231	83%
3	Betts, Palmer	D-backs	rhp	22	PIO	39	.248	79%
4	Bibens-Dirkx, Austin	Rangers	rhp	31	PCL	85	.256	78%
5	Sulbaran, J.C.	Cardinals	rhp	27	TL	96	.230	76%
6	Kelly, Casey	Braves	rhp	27	IL	74	.237	72%
7	Marks, Justin	Rays	lhp	28	IL	140	.239	71%
8	Whiting, Boone	Nationals	rhp	27	CAR	107	.249	70%
9	Copeland, Scott	Blue Jays	rhp	28	IL	50	.241	69%
10	Morales, Osmer	Mariners	rhp	24	CAL	102	.258	68%

In Focus: As expected, we see a sea of flyball pitchers on this leaderboard. One notable exception is Scott Copeland, a groundball pitcher (59 percent of batted balls, according to MLBfarm.com) who allowed a .241 average to Triple-A batters this year. Originally drafted by the Orioles, Copeland has kicked around the Toronto system since 2012, receiving a brief big league callup in 2015 and then pitching in the Korean major league for half of 2016. He needs luck on balls in play (.279 BABIP this year) because he doesn’t record great rates for strikeouts (34th percentile) or walks (33rd).

OPPONENT AVERAGE (Relievers)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	AVG	BF/Game
1	Schepel, Kyle	Mariners	rhp	26	CAL	27	.138	5.3
2	Beliveau, Jeff	Orioles	lhp	29	CAR	45	.155	7.0
3	Paredes, Edward	Angels	lhp	30	TL	44	.167	3.9
4	Lollis, Matt	White Sox	rhp	26	SL	34	.169	6.2
5	Ramirez, Luis	D-backs	rhp	24	CAL	27	.170	4.6
6	Chapman, Jaye	Rays	rhp	29	SL	32	.173	3.4
7	Schepel, Kyle	Mariners	rhp	26	SL	38	.183	6.8
8	Claiborne, Preston	Giants	rhp	28	EL	45	.186	5.2
9	Coleman, Casey	Mariners	rhp	29	PCL	39	.188	5.8
10	Kolarek, Adam	Rays	lhp	27	IL	41	.194	5.1

In Focus: The Indians signed Luis Ramirez as an outfielder in 2010 but released him prior to the 2011 season. The Diamondbacks signed him as a pitcher in 2012 and started him as a reliever in the Dominican Summer League that season. Ramirez reached Double-A in the second half of 2016 and recorded overall numbers (.214 average, 68 strikeouts in 53 innings with just four home runs allowed) that should get him a look with either the D-backs or a new organization in 2017.

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Hardest To Take Deep • Pitchers

Because a pitcher’s rate of home runs per fly ball can fluctuate wildly, a larger sample of innings is much more reliable.

HOME RUN RATE (Starters)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	HR/9	Percentile
1	Alonzo, Jose	Rays	rhp	23	NYP	32	0.00	100%
2	Betts, Palmer	D-backs	rhp	22	PIO	39	0.23	97%
3	Valdez, Cesar	Astros	rhp	31	PCL	138	0.52	91%
4	Vasquez, Anthony	Phillies	lhp	30	EL	101	0.45	86%
5	Tepesch, Nick	Royals	rhp	28	PCL	116	0.54	86%
6	Lawrence, Casey	Blue Jays	rhp	29	IL	87	0.52	82%
7	Kehrt, Jeremy	Dodgers	rhp	30	PCL	56	0.64	80%
8	Copeland, Scott	Blue Jays	rhp	28	IL	50	0.54	80%
9	Richardson, David	Orioles	rhp	25	CAR	81	0.45	78%
10	Greenwood, Nick	Twins	lhp	29	IL	79	0.57	78%

In Focus: A 17th-round pick out of junior college in 2010, David Richardson spent much of his first four years in short-season ball. Then he spent much of 2014 and 2015 on the disabled list. Richardson returned in 2016 to log a career-high 93 innings and 15 starts, and he showed encouraging signs despite a 4.82 ERA. He struck out 8.2 per nine innings and allowed just six home runs. That last part is impressive in light of the conditions at high Class A Frederick, which features a home run rate akin to launching pads such as Albuquerque, El Paso or Las Vegas.

HOME RUN RATE (Relievers)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	HR/9	BF/Game
1	Nina, Aroni	Royals	rhp	26	TL	34	0.00	5.8
2	Snow, Forrest	Mariners	rhp	27	SL	38	0.00	6.2
3	Hernandez, Hector	D-backs	lhp	25	MWL	45	0.00	9.1
4	Feliz, Gabriel	Mets	lhp	24	NYP	26	0.00	5.5
5	Chaffee, Ryan	Marlins	rhp	28	SL	42	0.00	6.4
6	Runion, Sam	Nationals	rhp	28	IL	36	0.00	6.7
7	Wright, Justin	Cardinals	lhp	27	TL	29	0.00	5.1
8	Thatcher, Joe	Cubs	lhp	35	PCL	22	0.00	3.6
9	Johnson, D.J.	Angels	rhp	27	TL	69	0.13	6.6
10	Markel, Parker	Rays	rhp	26	IL	61	0.15	7.6

In Focus: The Mariners drafted Forrest Snow out of his Seattle high school (2007) and then again out of Washington (2010), and he experienced success with the organization almost immediately by reaching Triple-A and pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2011. Seattle has shifted Snow back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen multiple times, and he settled in as a Double-A reliever for most of 2016—until he moved to the rotation at Triple-A late in the year. He continues to work as a starter in the Dominican League this winter, with encouraging results.

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Groundball Pitchers

A well-timed ground ball with a runner on first base can extricate a pitcher from a jam, but the ground ball can be a double-edged sword. Ground balls never become home runs, but they do become safe hits more frequently than fly balls. The major league average is about .240 on ground balls, but with only rare extra-base hits, while the average on fly balls is closer to .200, but with frequent extra-base hits.

GROUNDOUT-TO-AIROUT RATIO (Starters)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	GO/AO	Percentile
1	Tracy, Matt	Marlins	lhp	27	SL	55	1.98	99%
2	Copeland, Scott	Blue Jays	rhp	28	IL	50	1.87	99%
3	Carroll, Scott	White Sox	rhp	32	IL	60	1.70	96%
4	Jones, Chris	Angels	lhp	28	PCL	118	1.90	94%
5	Volstad, Chris	White Sox	rhp	30	IL	177	1.60	92%
6	Valdez, Cesar	Astros	rhp	31	PCL	138	1.80	92%
7	Loe, Kameron	White Sox	rhp	35	IL	68	1.54	91%
8	Lawrence, Casey	Blue Jays	rhp	29	EL	75	1.66	90%
9	Kehrt, Jeremy	Dodgers	rhp	30	PCL	56	1.71	90%
10	Shibuya, Tim	Dodgers	rhp	27	TL	76	1.62	89%

In Focus: A two-way player at Mississippi drafted by the Yankees in 2011, lefthander Matt Tracy reached New York for one game in 2015 and continued as a groundball-oriented starter in the Marlins organization in 2016.

The Blue Jays quickly re-signed Casey Lawrence after he became a free agent this fall. A nondrafted free agent from Albright College in Reading, Pa., signed in 2010, he combines groundball tendencies with above-average control.

GROUNDOUT-TO-AIROUT RATIO (Relievers)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	GO/AO	BF/Game
1	Rowen, Ben	Blue Jays	rhp	28	IL	47	3.25	5.2
2	Huchingson, Chase	Mets	lhp	27	PCL	27	3.15	6.2
3	Feliz, Gabriel	Mets	lhp	24	NYP	26	2.85	5.5
4	Hernandez, Ivan	Orioles	rhp	25	CAR	61	2.66	9.6
5	Kolarek, Adam	Rays	lhp	27	IL	41	2.48	5.1
6	Moskos, Daniel	Padres	lhp	30	PCL	61	2.34	5.1
7	Walden, Marcus	Twins	rhp	28	IL	46	2.19	5.3
8	Casilla, Jose	Giants	rhp	27	EL	48	2.06	6.4
9	Marte, Kelvin	Pirates	lhp	28	IL	74	1.96	8.9
10	Schepel, Kyle	Mariners	rhp	26	CAL	27	1.94	5.3

In Focus: Ben Rowen and Chase Huchingson, the top two pitchers on this list with the 3-to-1 ground-to-fly ratios, are low-slot relievers. Rowen retired same-side batters about 70 percent of the time in 2016, while Huchingson managed only about 60 percent.

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Best Control • Pitchers

WALK RATE (Starters)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	BB%	Percentile
1	Valdez, Cesar	Astros	rhp	31	PCL	138	2.3	100%
2	Hernandez, Carlos	Rockies	lhp	29	EL	115	3.1	100%
3	Whiting, Boone	Nationals	rhp	27	CAR	107	3.7	100%
4	Lawrence, Casey	Blue Jays	rhp	29	EL	75	4.1	98%
5	Shibuya, Tim	Dodgers	rhp	27	TL	76	3.8	96%
6	Greenwood, Nick	Twins	lhp	29	IL	79	3.6	96%
7	Wilk, Adam	Rays	lhp	28	IL	87	3.7	95%
8	Brady, Michael	Nationals	rhp	29	EL	74	4.4	94%
9	Grills, Evan	Astros	lhp	24	TL	95	4.1	93%
10	Alonzo, Jose	Rays	rhp	23	NYP	32	4.0	91%

In Focus: Prior to signing with the Astros in January, Cesar Valdez had not pitched in affiliated ball since 2011. That time away certainly didn’t inhibit him from ranking among the Pacific Coast League leaders with a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2016. Valdez pitched in the Mexican League in 2013 and 2015 and in winter ball every year to stay sharp. He appears on the free-agent leaderboards for walk rate, strikeout rate, home run rate and groundball rate, which suggests he will make a nice depth option for the Athletics, who signed him last week.

WALK RATE (Relievers)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	BB%	BF/Game
1	Lambert, Trey	Marlins	rhp	25	SAL	48	2.5	8.3
2	Mujica, Edward	Twins	rhp	32	IL	46	3.1	4.6
3	Chapman, Jaye	Rays	rhp	29	SL	32	3.4	3.4
4	Wooten, Rob	Braves	rhp	31	IL	73	3.6	8.8
5	Sitton, Kraig	Mariners	lhp	28	PCL	43	3.9	5.1
6	Guilmet, Preston	Tigers	rhp	29	IL	68	4.3	4.3
7	Villegas, Kender	Brewers	rhp	23	FSL	71	4.3	9.4
8	Hernandez, Hector	D-backs	lhp	25	MWL	45	5.2	9.1
9	Castro, Simon	Rockies	rhp	28	PCL	53	5.3	4.5
10	Carter, Anthony	Rangers	rhp	30	PCL	21	5.4	4.4

In Focus: The Giants quickly signed 28-year-old lefthander Kraig Sitton this fall when he hit the market. The 6-foot-5 Oregon State product sharpened his control markedly in 2016 and has past 40-man roster time (but no big league experience) with the Rockies, his drafting organization. Sitton has a track record for retiring same-side batters in the minors, and in 2016 he allowed lefties to hit just .211/.253/.300 in nearly 100 plate appearances.

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Strikeout Pitchers

STRIKEOUT RATE (Starters)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	SO%	Percentile
1	Morales, Osmer	Mariners	rhp	24	CAL	102	27.7	100%
2	Atkins, Mitch	Red Sox	rhp	31	EL	127	26.4	97%
3	Brady, Michael	Nationals	rhp	29	EL	74	21.8	82%
4	Buckner, Billy	D-backs	rhp	33	SL	73	23.0	82%
5	Garcia, Edgar	D-backs	rhp	29	SL	62	22.3	78%
6	Valdez, Cesar	Astros	rhp	31	PCL	138	20.5	75%
7	Marks, Justin	Rays	lhp	28	IL	140	21.7	72%
8	Mora, Gregor	Dodgers	rhp	21	PIO	27	21.9	71%
9	Wilk, Adam	Rays	lhp	28	IL	87	21.2	70%
10	Richardson, David	Orioles	rhp	25	CAR	81	20.1	70%

In Focus: The Angels quickly signed Osmer Morales when he became a free agent, and he should begin 2017 in the Double-A rotation. He pitches at 88 mph but generates tremendous spin on the pitch, which makes it appear faster to opposing batters, and he also generates swings and misses with a low-70s curveball and low-80s changeup. While Morales throws no pitch that would grade better than average, he hides the ball well and locates all his pitches for strikes. He is one of the most promising starting pitchers on the minor league free agent market.

STRIKEOUT RATE (Relievers)
No	Pitcher	Org	Pos	Age	League	IP	SO%	BF/Game
1	Ramirez, Luis	D-backs	rhp	24	CAL	27	35.8	4.6
2	Chapman, Jaye	Rays	rhp	29	SL	32	35.0	3.4
3	Beliveau, Jeff	Orioles	lhp	29	CAR	45	34.0	7.0
4	Stoffel, Jason	Orioles	rhp	28	EL	29	33.3	4.6
5	Schepel, Kyle	Mariners	rhp	26	CAL	27	33.0	5.3
6	Cleto, Maikel	Braves	rhp	27	IL	21	33.0	4.7
7	Thatcher, Joe	Cubs	lhp	35	PCL	22	32.7	3.6
8	Malm, Jeff	Dodgers	lhp	26	CAL	29	32.5	5.6
9	Snow, Forrest	Mariners	rhp	27	SL	38	32.4	6.2
10	Stoffel, Jason	Orioles	rhp	28	IL	30	31.1	4.3

In Focus: Jeff Malm has one of the more interesting backstories among the pool of minor league free agents. The Rays went over-slot to sign him as a fifth-round pick in 2009—back when he played first base at Bishop Gorman High in Las Vegas. Malm, who bats lefthanded, reached Double-A as a position player in 2014 but didn’t hit for a ton of power, so Tampa Bay released him that offseason.

The Angels signed Malm as a pitcher in February 2015 but didn’t retain him after 15 games (including six starts) at Rookie-level Orem. The Dodgers signed him for 2016, and he went to spring training expecting to be a position player once again. Ultimately, he wound up back on the mound and made his first appearance in the California League on April 28. He made it back to Double-A in July, this time as a pitcher. While he got lit up in his first and last outings in the Texas League, he recorded a 0.56 ERA with 13 strikeouts and three walks in 16 innings in between. Malm will focus on preparing to pitch this offseason and could be a sleeper.