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2018 Top 200 MLB Draft Prospects Chat

Carlos Collazo: Welcome to our first draft chat of 2018 everyone! Thanks for stopping by, submitting your questions and being as excited about the MLB Draft (still 143 days away from now) as we are around the BA office. Before we jump into everything just know that in addition to this chat, you can get the most inside info on the draft by subscribing to Baseball America. That gets you the complete top 200 list and we also released a To-Do List for the first round talents (1-31) that gives you over 4,000 words about what the top prospects still have to prove or show this spring. With that, let’s jump into the chat. Thanks again for joining!

J.P. (Springfield, IL): At this point, would you consider the class of '18 crop as a whole below, at, or above last year's in terms of ceiling? Thanks for chatting, Carlos.

Carlos Collazo: Sure thing J.P., thanks for being here. This is a good one to start off with and get into the class as a whole. When we were reporting for the 2017 draft class last spring I remember talking to evaluators who would regularly bring up 2018 names and talk about how excited they were for that class. I think it’s fairly safe to say this year’s group as a whole has a better ceiling than last year’s thanks to the depth of arms offered in both the high school and college ranks. I don’t have as long a track record of doing this as old pal John Manuel, but I’d say this class is probably the best since at least 2014, based on what I’ve heard from the industry. Fun year.

College Fan (SEC): Seeing Madrigal in the top 10 has me wondering--are there teams telling you they see him as a guy they'd take in the top 10? Or is it more "he's not our kinda guy, but it is top 10 level talent" you're hearing from them? I'm a big believer, but I can see where pro teams would be skeptical.

Carlos Collazo: I’ve been on Nick Madrigal since the first time I saw him back in 2014 when I was interning with BA. Love this guy. That said, you bring up a great point and I’ve already heard from some teams that would not have him at the top of their board because of his size. Some teams would just rather go for a prospect with a higher ceiling that high. Other teams would be perfectly fine with him. Just depends on the draft philosophy. It would be interesting to see just how low he is on the lowest team’s board, but I would be surprised if he fell far at all. He’s such a good hitter and does everything well with great makeup to top it off.

DR (East Coast): I know you get a lot of questions as to who could rise, but who could fall the most? That is, who has the most volatile stock at this point?

Carlos Collazo: This might be a cop out, but I’m going to go with a demographic answer here. College hitters usually rise as we get closer to the draft and with high school players being more volatile in general, my pick will be any prep pitcher on this list. If any of these guys get injured this spring, they’re obviously going to fall because of that. The stuff could back up as well, or some pitchers might not be able to hold what they did during showcases last summer across 5-7 inning stints this spring. High school catching is risky as well and the track record there is scary, so some players like Banfield, Naylor and Seigler could drop because of questions with that if they aren’t performing. The catching class this year is very solid though.

Track 'Em Down (Colorado): I'm curious about the evaluation of Jameson Hannah of Dallas Baptist. #135 is a lot lower than where other publications have him...What do the scouts say? Size? Makeup?

Carlos Collazo: Hannah is really interesting. I wouldn’t say that a lot of publications have him a lot higher than we do though. There’s not much of a consensus on him between the lists I’ve seen, which is to be expected once you get past the first couple rounds this far out. Some have him lower than we do. He’s hit .330/.409/.499 over 117 games during his first two years with Dallas Baptist and it sounds like he profiles at center field at the next level as well. He’s a really good runner, and I think teams would like to see that translate into more stolen bases this year, but if he keeps hitting like he has he’ll likely move up the list as we go through the season. Every year people say that college bats rise and every year that’s exactly what happens. Hannah could be one of those. It’s also worth noting that Jameson Hannah destroyed it with my colleague Mike Lananna’s favorite summer team, the Savannah Bananas in 2016.

DAn (Baltimore): Ryder Green seems like he has top of the class power. Is he a guy that could creep into the late first round with a productive spring? What would he have to show?

Carlos Collazo: I’m not sure where Green’s power stacks up with guys like Gorman, Casas and Northcut, but I did see him hit a big homer at East Coast Pro off an 89 mph fastball. He’s got to be one of the better righthanded power hitters in the high school class. I think there are some swing and miss questions with him currently. Some people have told me he’s a bit stiff, and getting looser in the box this spring could help him. He’s an athletic kid, but he could also stand to improve his reads and routes in the outfield.

Scott (Chicago): What happened to Seth Beer?

Carlos Collazo: Nothing happened to Seth Beer. We have been getting a lot of Beer questions though that Teddy Cahill and myself have answered on Twitter and that we talked about on today’s draft podcast. Check that out for more details. The short answer though is that we had him ranked No. 17 and then No. 18 in our Top 50 college and Top 100 college lists, respectively. That lines up pretty much perfectly with where he is now that the high school class is thrown in the mix. His is a tough profile and NL teams would have to think really hard before popping him in the first round.

leprekhan (Georgia): Long time reader, first time questioner. Who is the fastest rising draft prospect in the state of Georgia and do you think the Braves will continue to be heavily involved in the Georgia amateur scene or are you hearing they are focused elsewhere?

Carlos Collazo: Hey there leprekhan. Stick around now that you’ve taken the leap to submitting questions will you? This one has to go to Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart, which might be surprising considering how much I’ve hyped up the high school class in Georgia this year. It’s tough for guys to be “big risers” from the fall to January, but that’s the case with Bart. We didn’t have him in our Top 50 college prospects in September after a down summer, but it sounds like that was more injury-related than anything else. He really impressed during the fall. With his power and the steps he’s taken defensively he lands as the top catcher currently for us, just ahead of Will Banfield. As for your second question, it’s still early to match teams up with players they are really interested in but given the Braves history in the state, love of pitchers and love of big stuff and high upside I’d imagine they are pretty happy that Ethan Hankins and Kumar Rocker pitch in their backyard.

JP (Ottawa): Why is Greyson Jenista ranked at #22 when he was the MVP of the Cape Cod League?

Carlos Collazo: Thanks for the question JP. In 2016 Ernie Clement (Virginia) was the MVP of the Cape Cod League and he was drafted in the 4th round last year. That award is certainly impressive, but I don’t think it translates directly to draft stock. Being ranked No. 22 is certainly no slight to Jenista. North Carolina SS Logan Warmoth got $2.8 million last year after being drafted 22nd. That’s good.

Marc (Mililani, Hawaii): Who are the best players who won't go in the first round because of sign-ability?

Carlos Collazo: Nice try Marc, like I’m going to ruin some kid’s leverage this June by telling you that. Just kidding. But seriously, that’s not something that I’m privy to at the moment, although I’d guess most teams have gotten or are getting a better feel for signability with in-home visits throughout the offseason.

Brian (Orlando, FL): Will Stetson have its first 1st round selection in 15 years in 2018?

Carlos Collazo: Shoutout to Brian Snyder in the 2003 draft class. But yes, I really like what I’ve been hearing about Logan Gilbert at this point. He’s a guy who could pitch his way into the top 5 and wouldn’t surprise me at all. It’s also worth pointing out that both Jacob DeGrom and Corey Kluber were Stetson products. DeGrom was a 9th round pick in 2010 and Kluber got popped in the 4th round of 2007.

Jake (Springfield, MA): This seems to be one of the better prospect classes from the Northeast. What player(s) do you think may get serious looks in early rounds?

Carlos Collazo: Hey Jake. As my old pal Clint Longenecker would say, great call! I’d have to do more research to see where this group stacks up to recent years in the northeast, but there are a pair of pitchers currently in the first round for us in Time Cate and Mike Vasil. Cate has a terrific track record with Connecticut with a great strikeout rate and has one of the better curveballs of the class. If his velo ticks up he could be looking at the middle of the first round or higher. Vasil is something of the opposite as a high school kid who’s shown good stuff and has a projectable frame, but needs to continue building his own track record this spring and get seen more—which he will. He’s got the talent to go in the top 10 I’d guess.

Tiffythetitan (Oakland, CA): So, 2018 draft class is supposed to be strong? Do you take the best bat first and then go for pitching? And yes, best player available blah, blah, blah. All things being equal if you were playing the draft board...what is plausible scenario for the Giants with their first and 2nd round pick?

Carlos Collazo: What’s up titan, thanks for the question. I’m always a proponent of the best player available strategy, but with this year’s class you could easily convince me that taking the best bat during the first round and then taking your pick on a pitcher in the second is a good strategy. There are so many arms that are going to be available there that you might see as first round talents that other teams just have a different opinion on or worse history with than you do. Why not? The Giants haven’t picked this high since 1985, but it’s a pretty good year for them to have the second overall pick. They picked near the top of the draft in 2008 and 2009 and went with Buster Posey and Zack Wheeler, respectively. They could jump on Joey Bart and try to get another franchise catcher, but that seems a little rich currently. They’ll be able to take their pick with arms though and I’d love to see what they could do with Ethan Hankins or Matthew Liberatore.

tim815 (61103): If your OF is Pompey, Swaggerty, Conine, who plays LF CF and RF?

Carlos Collazo: Love this one. I’m going to put Swaggerty in CF, he’s a good runner and profiles better there down the line than the other two. After that I’d throw Conine in RF because of the arm and put Swaggerty in LF.

Tiffythetitan (Oakland, CA): If you're the SF Giants...how much do you value that 2nd round pick taking into account the state of the current farm and state of the current team. Personally, I'd like to see them keep the pick. Others, would rather see Lorenzo Cain in CF (at this point) for a few years.

Carlos Collazo: Cain would be nice to have in that outfield, but I’d rather have the pick. (Certainly no bias from me here, right?) This is a deep draft and you have a chance to really impact your team down the line. Plus the Giants have one of the weaker systems in the league at this point. Gimme the prospects.

Mike (Michigan): Would you say the scouting consensus in the industry is that Singer is the top guy? I've read differing opinions on him among the online draft community, mainly related to whether people think he could ultimately be a reliever down the road due to his delivery and current stuff.

Carlos Collazo: There’s definitely less of a consensus on the top spot with Singer this year than there was last year with Hunter Greene, who I believe stuck in the top spot from our first 100 rankings in March through the final BA 500. You bring up a good point about his delivery and there are some teams who don’t love it, and other teams who like his teammate, Jackson Kowar better than Singer, in part because his motion is much cleaner. He’s not a No. 1 lock by any means, but at this point with his stuff, track record, and the feedback we’ve gotten he’s fine there.

Jeff (San Francisco): Stanford has a lot of intriguing/high upside talent this year - Bubic, Hoerner, Beck - whats your take on their ultimate draft position come June? Could they creep into Round 1?

Carlos Collazo: They do. Beck is the easiest one here because if he comes back healthy and pitches like he did in 2016 he’s going to go in the first round. Teams just have to wait and see with him. Bubic’s path is a little tougher because his stuff isn’t exceptional and his best secondary is a changeup. Still, it’s a really good offering and he’s lefthanded.

Nick (San Diego): Could you see John Aiello rising up these lists leading up to the draft? His stats look good but I don't know much else about him.

Carlos Collazo: Yeah his numbers are impressive. A .328/.417/.643 line in the ACC is going to get you looked at. Last year he had the fourth-best slugging percentage in the conference after Drew Ellis, Adam Haseley and Brendan McKay. He’s got real power and that will get him drafted, but he’ll jump if he cuts down the strikeouts. Sounds like he’s more of a fringy defender at third and he had Tommy John surgery in high school so the defense is something to look out for as well.

Seth Dunn (California): What're you hearing about Isaiah Campbell? He intrigues me given the talent level but injury history.

Carlos Collazo: He’s got a big arm and I’ve heard good things about his fall, but you’re right about the injury history. He’s got to stay healthy and do it. He’s got just 32 innings under his belt in the SEC and half of his games then were relief appearances.

Max (Los Angeles, CA): Whats your take on Nick Meyer & Alex McKenna - either have a shot at 1st Round?

Carlos Collazo: I haven’t seen either in person yet, but hear great things about Nick Meyer’s defense behind the dish. I’d be surprised if he pushed into the first round though. McKenna seems more likely to me, he’s got some tools and the reports we have from his Cape this year before he dealt with a hamstring injury are encouraging. He’s going to need to clean up his swing a bit, but if he takes a step in the spring watch out.

leprekhan (Georgia): Hi, I am back again as requested. Who is the player in the top 50 that you are most surprised ended up there (such as maybe scouts were much higher on than BA was initially)?

Carlos Collazo: Glad to have you back. I’ll speak for myself here rather than BA as a whole (although I do know that JJ Cooper loves Sean Hjelle higher than where he’s at now and Teddy would probably draft Singer yesterday if he could). Noah Naylor was a guy who was pushed up after the feedback he received. Not because I didn’t like him, I just didn’t have him as high as where he’s currently at. I’ve heard from multiple people who think he’s the best high school bat in the class and he has a long track record against pro competition. Team Canada does a really good job of getting their guys looks and I just don’t have the history with him that teams have. I like him at third base more than catcher I think, too.

Mike (Pittsburgh): IRT high school LHP Mason Ronan (ranked #115). Is he best PA prospect this year? Any comps you have?

Carlos Collazo: Hey Mike. Fittingly enough, our current top PA prospect is Mike Siani who’s got four impressive tools in his bat, glove, arm and running ability. Ronan is very good though. He’s athletic with an upper 80s, low 90s fastball and a sharp, mid 70s CB. He’s 6-2 and lefthanded as well. I like that combination from a high school pitcher in the northeast.

Carlos Collazo: Well, I think that’s it for today everyone. I really appreciate you stopping by to ask questions or just read the chat. If you have any more for me or yours didn’t get answered feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @CarlosACollazo. I’ll also plug my Instagram (@carloscollazoba) where you can currently see video of every top 31 high school player except Mike Vasil. Sorry Mike. I’ll be adding to that daily for the foreseeable future as well. If you haven’t yet, also check out all the draft content we put out today and subscribe to get every last bit of it. Thanks everyone, have a good holiday weekend! 143 days until the draft.

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