Alex Toral

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #258 prospect in 2021 draft
  Toral had a tumultuous amateur career in terms of his draft stock and the expectations placed on him. He blew up in the scouting community after just his freshman season when he started getting Adrian Gonzalez comps. After struggling offensively during his senior season at Archbishop McCarthy High in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Toral made his way to Miami, where he struggled to a .161/.322/.237 line. The next year, Toral exploded for 24 homers, though that came with a strikeout rate over 30%. In the shortened 2020 season, it looked like Toral had taken another step forward. He walked more than he whiffed over the first 16 games, while also showing a better all-fields approach en route to a .296/.435/.593 slash line. This spring, the power backed up, as Toral hit just seven homers over 54 games and posted a .264/.398/.436 slash line while also mainly hitting to the pull side and back up the middle. Power is his calling card and he’ll need to hit with plenty of thump as a 6-foot-1, 235-pound hitter limited to first base, where he’s a below-average runner and defender. Toral has a patient approach at the plate and draws his fair share of walks (16.9 BB% this season), but scouts now are skeptical about how his hit tool is going to play against professional pitching. There’s no doubt Toral has massive raw power, but how frequently he’ll get to that power is a question teams might not have a great answer for.
• Ranked #159 prospect in 2020 draft
  Toral entered the 2017 draft cycle with lofty expectations, and he was seen as one of the better hitting prospects in the class before his stock fell after an underwhelming spring season with Archbishop McCarthy High in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Toral was a household name after showing big power potential as early as his freshman season, leading some to think he was well on his way to being the next Adrián González. That didn’t come to pass, and Toral made his way to Miami, where he continued to struggle with the bat. He hit just .161/.322/.237 with one home run and 40 strikeouts to 20 walks in 33 games. Scouts and coaches both questioned his ability to discern and make contact against offspeed offerings and use the opposite field. He took steps forward as a sophomore, tapping into his power and hitting 24 home runs, though that came with a strikeout rate north of 30 percent. Last summer Toral played 34 games in the Cape but hit just .200/.313/.305 with two home runs. As a first baseman who’s a well below-average runner and below-average defender, there’s a significant amount of pressure on Toral’s bat. In a brief stint this spring, scouts saw signs of improvement. He showed a more mature approach at the plate and was seeing the ball better, rarely getting fooled on pitches he previously struggled with. He cut down his swing and miss and also showed more power to the opposite field than he had before. Through 16 games, Toral hit .296/.435/.593 with five home runs and more walks (13) than strikeouts (9). It will take a lot of faith for teams to buy into that small sample of improvement given his long history of struggles and swing-and-miss concerns, but Toral does have plus-plus raw power and if he finds a way to regularly tap into it, he could become a dangerous hitter in the middle of a lineup.
• Ranked #199 prospect in 2017 draft
  Toral entered the year as one of the class' top prep hitting prospects, but has seen his stock fall rapidly after an underwhelming spring. He has shown the ability to hit top pitching with authority in the past--like when he took mid-90s heat from D.L. Hall last summer and left the park with it--but had only one home run this season and has been outperformed by Archbishop McCarthy teammate Joe Perez at the plate. There's a significant amount of pressure on Toral's bat, as he is a well-below-average runner and struggled defensively at first base. His pricetag is thought to be high thanks to his impressive track record and his commitment to Miami. The signability questions coupled with his performance this spring make it harder to see him going in the first three rounds--where he seemed to be at the beginning of the season--although teams might give him a bit of a pass as he's been playing through an ankle injury. Toral does show excellent awareness of the strike zone, leading his team with 22 walks with just seven strikeouts. Opponents have regularly pitched him backwards or given him nothing to hit this season thanks to his reputation in the box.