Sam Carlson

Carlson is the top high school prospect to come out of Minnesota since Joe Mauer in 2001. He draws comparisons to Athletics prospect Logan Shore; like Shore, Carlson is a Minnesota prep righty committed to Florida whose fastball-changeup combo defines him. Carlson, however, has a better body and throws harder than Shore did as an amateur. On the summer showcase circuit prior to his senior year, Carlson showed plus arm speed and a projectable body, but he pitched 90-91 with fastball. He showed the potential for a plus changeup with exceptionally late fade and tumbling action down and away from lefthanded hitters. Carlson flashed tight spin on his upper 70s breaking ball, but the pitch had inconsistent tilt and often backed up on him when he threw it to his arm side. Carlson was one of the biggest risers this spring due to the growth of his fastball velocity and the consistency of his breaking pitch. He came out of the gate hot, pitching at 91-95 and touching 96. Carlson has not thrown his changeup often in games this spring, but it continues to show the plus potential it did last summer when he throws it in the bullpen. His breaking ball now has more of a true slider look to it, and he's hitting on it more consistently than he did last summer. Carlson hides the ball well in his delivery with a short plunge towards his back hip. He throws from a lower three-quarters arm slot and finishes across his body. He has a loose, athletic lower half and gets over his front side well. Carlson shows above-average control of all of his pitches and has the chance to develop command as he matures physically. Carlson is a legitimate two-way prospect if he makes good on his Florida commitment. He runs well and shows the ability to generate hard line drives to the gaps. He's likely to be selected in the first two rounds, though.