Troy Melton

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Detroit Tigers #10 prospect in 2024
  BA Grade: 50/High
  
  Track Record: Melton seemed headed in the wrong direction when he posted a 6.91 ERA as a starter for San Diego State in 2021. No team would meet his asking price, so he bet on himself and returned to school in 2022. He shortened his arm action and found success. The Tigers astutely drafted him in the fourth round. Melton got even better in 2023 by showing a bit more velocity and plenty of feel for how to work up and down to change hitters’ eye levels. He has control to rival nearly any pitcher in the Tigers organization, with a 6.4% walk rate in 2023 that led all starters in the system who pitched at least 70 innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Melton has a relatively mature, 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame and is somewhat stiff, but he repeats his delivery, throws strikes and his stuff is some of the best in the Tigers’ system. His four-seam fastball added another tick in 2023. He now sits 94-96 mph. He can work his fastball to the top of the zone. It doesn’t have exceptional life or carry, but he commands it well, and it helps him regularly get ahead in counts. His average low-to-mid-80s slider and above-average mid-80s changeup both have steadily gotten better as well. Melton has plus control, which helps him avoid big innings. He showed as much in 2023 in a season spent primarily at High-A West Michigan. He had 10 different starts in which he walked no one, and only one start all year where he allowed four runs.
  
  The Future: Melton took his turn every time in 2023, but the Tigers were cautious with his workload, holding him to under 100 innings and never letting him throw 90 pitches in a start. He’s ready for a heavier workload as he jumps to Double-A Erie in 2024. He’s a potential back-of-the-rotation starter who could also slide to the bullpen if needed.
  
  Scouting Grades Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 60
• 
  Ranked Detroit Tigers #21 prospect in 2023
  BA Grade/Risk: 45/High
  
  Track Record: Melton was a draft eligible redshirt sophomore in 2021, but no team was going to meet his bonus demands at the end of a disappointing season that saw him go 4-5, 6.13 with a .291 opponents average. That proved to be a wise choice for Melton. He finished his marketing degree and blossomed after shortening his arm action. He went 5-2, 2.07 as the Aztecs ace. He barely pitched after signing, making two brief appearances in September.
  
  Scouting Report: Melton sits 93-95 mph and will touch 98 with his above-average fastball. While he has started to fill out, there's still the potential for additional strength gains. Melton has added a low-90s sinker as well that gives hitters another fastball to worry about. Melton mixes in a mid-80s, fringe-average slider with late break that could strengthen with more use. His final offering is an 87-88 mph changeup that projects as a future average offering. Melton's new shorter arm action improved his ability to repeat his delivery, which has helped him improve his control as well. He slashed his walk rate from 8.8% of hitters in 2021 to 5.6% of hitters in 2022.
  
  The Future: After taking a cautious approach to start his pro career, Melton should be ready for a full season of work in 2023. He could begin the season in the warmth of Low-A Lakeland, but should spend most of the year at High-A West Michigan.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Slider: 45. Changeup: 50. Control: 50

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #101 prospect in 2022 draft
  School: San Diego State Committed/Drafted: Never Drafted
  Age At Draft: 21.6
  BA Grade: 45/High
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: - | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 50 | Cutter: | Control: 45
  Melton possessed some of the best stuff in last year’s draft class but couldn’t get teams to meet his bonus demands after a poor season. He opted to return to school and made the decision look wise with a dominant showing at the front of San Diego State’s rotation. Melton is a physical, athletic 6-foot-4 righthander with a quick arm and physical projection still remaining. His four-seam fastball sits 93-95 mph, touches 98 and has room to tick up further as he gets stronger and fills out his frame. He added a two-seamer in the low 90s this season that gets under rigthhanded batters’ hands and is at least an above-average pitch. Melton’s short, mid-80s slider with late break flashes average, but is often only on one plane, leaving it vulnerable to getting hit hard. His firm, 87-88 mph changeup is an average third pitch. Melton’s stuff previously played down because hitters could track the ball easily out of his glove, but he shortened his arm action to create more deception this spring and fixed the issue. After allowing a 6.14 ERA and 10.7 hits per nine innings last year, he logged a 2.07 ERA with 7.9 hits per nine this season. The change also helped Melton repeat his release point better and improve his control to fringe-average. Melton still struggles with consistency at times, but he is trending in the right direction. His improved stuff, deception and control have him in top-three rounds consideration.
• Ranked #116 prospect in 2021 draft
  Melton bounced between pitching, catching and playing first and third base in high school. Once he got to San Diego State and focused solely on pitching, his stuff jumped to make him one of the more intriguing pitchers in the draft class. Melton is an athletic 6-foot-4 righthander who is young for the class (he will be 20 on draft day) and is still growing into his body. His fastball sits 92-95 mph and touches 97, and he has the frame, athleticism and arm speed to project for more velocity to come. He shows feel to spin an average curveball in the mid 70s and a short, mid-80s slider that flashes average with late break. His firm changeup is a fringy fourth offering. Melton’s raw stuff and athleticism excite, but his fastball plays down due to a lack of deception. He surrendered a 6.14 ERA and allowed a .291 opponent average during the regular season despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park because batters see the ball early out of his glove and can track it throughout his delivery. His long arm action also gives him trouble repeating his release point. Melton’s youth, athleticism and arm strength appeal to teams who believe they can fix his issues by making mechanical changes to add deception and shorten his arm action. He projects to go early on the draft’s second day despite his performance.

• February, 2023 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 45/High
  
  Track Record: Melton was a draft eligible redshirt sophomore in 2021, but no team was going to meet his bonus demands at the end of a disappointing season that saw him go 4-5, 6.13 with a .291 opponents average. That proved to be a wise choice for Melton. He finished his marketing degree and blossomed after shortening his arm action. He went 5-2, 2.07 as the Aztecs ace. He barely pitched after signing, making two brief appearances in September.
  
  Scouting Report: Melton sits 93-95 mph and will touch 98 with his above-average fastball. While he has started to fill out, there's still the potential for additional strength gains. Melton has added a low-90s sinker as well that gives hitters another fastball to worry about. Melton mixes in a mid-80s, fringe-average slider with late break that could strengthen with more use. His final offering is an 87-88 mph changeup that projects as a future average offering. Melton's new shorter arm action improved his ability to repeat his delivery, which has helped him improve his control as well. He slashed his walk rate from 8.8% of hitters in 2021 to 5.6% of hitters in 2022.
  
  The Future: After taking a cautious approach to start his pro career, Melton should be ready for a full season of work in 2023. He could begin the season in the warmth of Low-A Lakeland, but should spend most of the year at High-A West Michigan.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Slider: 45. Changeup: 50. Control: 50
• December, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 45/High
  
  Track Record: Melton was a draft eligible redshirt sophomore in 2021, but no team was going to meet his bonus demands at the end of a disappointing season that saw him go 4-5, 6.13 with a .291 opponents average. That proved to be a wise choice for Melton. He finished his marketing degree and blossomed after shortening his arm action. He went 5-2, 2.07 as the Aztecs ace. He barely pitched after signing, making two brief appearances in September.
  
  Scouting Report: Melton sits 93-95 mph and will touch 98 with his above-average fastball. While he has started to fill out, there's still the potential for additional strength gains. Melton has added a low-90s sinker as well that gives hitters another fastball to worry about. Melton mixes in a mid-80s, fringe-average slider with late break that could strengthen with more use. His final offering is an 87-88 mph changeup that projects as a future average offering. Melton's new shorter arm action improved his ability to repeat his delivery, which has helped him improve his control as well. He slashed his walk rate from 8.8% of hitters in 2021 to 5.6% of hitters in 2022.
  
  The Future: After taking a cautious approach to start his pro career, Melton should be ready for a full season of work in 2023. He could begin the season in the warmth of Low-A Lakeland, but should spend most of the year at High-A West Michigan.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Slider: 45. Changeup: 50. Control: 50
• April, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade: 45/High
  
  August Update: Melton possessed some of the best stuff in last year&#39s draft class but couldn&#39t get teams to meet his bonus demands after a poor season. He opted to return to school and made the decision look wise with a dominant showing at the front of San Diego State&#39s rotation. Melton is a physical, athletic 6-foot-4 righthander with a quick arm and physical projection still remaining. His four-seam fastball sits 93-95 mph, touches 98 and has room to tick up further as he gets stronger and fills out his frame. He added a two-seamer in the low 90s this season that gets under rigthhanded batters&#39 hands and is at least an above-average pitch. Melton&#39s short, mid-80s slider with late break flashes average, but is often only on one plane, leaving it vulnerable to getting hit hard. His firm, 87-88 mph changeup is an average third pitch. Melton&#39s stuff previously played down because hitters could track the ball easily out of his glove, but he shortened his arm action to create more deception this spring and fixed the issue. After allowing a 6.14 ERA and 10.7 hits per nine innings last year, he logged a 2.07 ERA with 7.9 hits per nine this season. The change also helped Melton repeat his release point better and improve his control to fringe-average. Melton still struggles with consistency at times, but he is trending in the right direction. His improved stuff, deception and control have him in top-three rounds consideration.
• 2021 Draft Prospects
  Melton bounced between pitching, catching and playing first and third base in high school. Once he got to San Diego State and focused solely on pitching, his stuff jumped to make him one of the more intriguing pitchers in the draft class. Melton is an athletic 6-foot-4 righthander who is young for the class (he will be 20 on draft day) and is still growing into his body. His fastball sits 92-95 mph and touches 97, and he has the frame, athleticism and arm speed to project for more velocity to come. He shows feel to spin an average curveball in the mid 70s and a short, mid-80s slider that flashes average with late break. His firm changeup is a fringy fourth offering. Melton’s raw stuff and athleticism excite, but his fastball plays down due to a lack of deception. He surrendered a 6.14 ERA and allowed a .291 opponent average during the regular season despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park because batters see the ball early out of his glove and can track it throughout his delivery. His long arm action also gives him trouble repeating his release point. Melton’s youth, athleticism and arm strength appeal to teams who believe they can fix his issues by making mechanical changes to add deception and shorten his arm action. He projects to go early on the draft’s second day despite his performance.