Twins Lock Down No. 1 Pick In 2017

With a week remaining in the regular season, there’s a lot at stake, with both wild-card spots still up for grabs. There’s also a lot at stake with respect to the bottom of the standings; the Twins clinched the No. 1 overall pick with Sunday’s loss, their 100th of the season. Here’s the reverse order of the standings entering tonight’s games.

Rank	Team	W	L	Percentage
1	Twins	56	100	.359
2	Braves	63	92	.406
3	Diamondbacks	65	91	.417
4	Rays	65	91	.417
5	Reds	66	90	.423
6	Padres	66	90	.423
7	Athletics	67	89	.429
8	Angels	70	87	.446
9	Phillies	70	86	.449
10	Brewers	71	86	.452
11	Rockies	73	83	.468
12	White Sox	75	81	.481
13	Pirates	77	79	.494
14	Marlins	78	78	.500
15	Royals	79	77	.506
16	Yankees	80	76	.513
17	Cardinals	81	75	.519
18	Astros	82	75	.522
19	Giants	82	74	.526
20	Mets	83	74	.529
21	Mariners	83	73	.532
22	Tigers	83	73	.532
23	Orioles	85	71	.545
24	Blue Jays	86	70	.551
25	Dodgers	90	66	.577
26	Indians	91	65	.583
27	Nationals	91	65	.583
28	Rangers	92	65	.586
29	Rangers	92	64	.590
30	Cubs	100	56	.641

In a draft class that could have elite talent available in the top five, the results of the final week of the season could have a significant impact on each team’s draft strategy and overall direction going forward. Of particular note is the cluster from Nos. 2-7; the Braves are separated from the A’s by just 3 1/2 games, with the Diamondbacks, Rays, Reds and Padres sandwiched in between.

Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, each draft pick in the top 10 rounds comes with an assigned bonus slot value. Teams are allowed to spend the sum of each of their individual bonus slots, provided they sign the player they selected with each of those picks.

The CBA stipulates that the values of the bonus slots are to increase in line with MLB’s revenue growth, and the league’s revenue has grown every year since the CBA was agreed upon. This means that the top picks become even more valuable relative to the picks at the bottom. Here are the bonus slots for the top 30 picks in 2016.

2016 BONUS SLOTS
First Round
1. Phillies	$9,015,000
2. Reds	$7,762,900
3. Braves	$6,510,800
4. Rockies	$5,258,700
5. Brewers	$4,382,200
6. Athletics	$4,069,200
7. Marlins	$3,756,300
8. Padres	$3,630,900
9. Tigers	$3,505,800
10. White Sox	$3,380,600
11. Mariners	$3,286,700
12. Red Sox	$3,192,800
13. Rays	$3,098,900
14. Indians	$2,973,700
15. Twins	$2,817,100
16. Angels	$2,660,800
17. Astros	$2,504,200
18. Yankees	$2,441,600
19. Mets	$2,378,800
20. Dodgers	$2,316,300
21. Blue Jays	$2,285,100
22. Pirates	$2,253,700
23. Cardinals	$2,222,500
24. Padres	$2,191,200
25. Padres	$2,159,900
26. White Sox	$2,128,500
27. Orioles	$2,097,200
28. Nationals	$2,065,900
29. Nationals	$2,034,600
30. Rangers	$2,003,400

The difference in bonus pool allotment, just in the first round, from No. 2 to No. 7 was more than $4 million, and that gap would likely grow if the current rules stay in place in the next CBA. In addition to having a better lot of players to pick from by picking higher, the financial flexibility gained by signing a player under slot value can allow a team to spread that bonus pool money elsewhere by signing players who fall due to signability concerns or slip through the cracks of the draft.

Beyond the implications on draft bonus pools, the standings also determine international bonus pools. Again, it isn’t clear whether the upcoming CBA will implement changes to the international system. If the reverse order of the standings continues to have a direct impact on international spending, the next week could have a significant impact.

The rules are complex, but the idea is simple: over the next week, it is in the best interest of a rebuilding team to lose as many games as possible. The value of late-season winning isn’t as easily quantifiable as the value of tanking, but there are significant incentives for teams to lose in this final week.