Performance Analysis For 40-Man Roster Additions

More than two-thirds of the 130-odd players added to 40-man rosters this November centered their seasons at either Double-A or Triple-A. This makes sense. Teams do not want to risk losing these near big league-ready prospects to either minor league free agency or the Rule 5 draft, so they add them to 40-man rosters to prevent such an outcome.

The majority of the other one-third of players—the ones who played at Class A this season—signed as international free agents, many at age 16, so they are only now turning 21 years old. A few of the others are pitchers who missed time along the way after having arm surgery.

Regardless of how players reach this point, they are now members of the MLB Players’ Association as 40-man roster players. They also receive an automatic invitation to big league spring training, not to mention a jump to a new tax bracket.

To get a better feel for what these players might bring to their organizations, we present here a performance overview for 2016. Players in each group are sorted by wins above average (WAA), which is park-adjusted and calculated by Baseball America. For batters, this calculation is based on weighted on-base average (wOBA) and for pitchers it is based on runs allowed per nine innings (R/9). Each player’s primary level for 2016 is listed under (Lvl). An asterisk (*) denotes lefthanded batter/pitcher, while a pound sign (#) signifies switch-hitter.

Park-adjusted OPS+ and ERA+ are similar to the familiar Baseball-Reference.com metrics.


Middle Infield & Catcher

Secondary average (SecA) summarizes a batter’s contributions beyond batting average. It measures walks, extra bases and net stolen bases per at-bat and allows the reader to see at a glance whether a player supplements his batting average with walks, extra-base hits and/or stolen bases—or whether he’s an empty .280 hitter. As with batting average, a secondary average of .300 or greater is excellent.

• The major league batting average for non-pitchers from 2014 to 2016 was .257. The secondary average for that period was .251. The average strikeout rate was 20.1 percent.

No Batter Org Pos Lvl PA AVG SecA SO% OPS+ WAA
1 Alvarez, Eli* Cardinals 2b LoA 499 .323 .323 19.2 176 4.5
2 Mejia, Francisco# Indians c LoA 443 .342 .241 14.2 155 3.0
3 Rosario, Amed Mets ss HiA 527 .324 .242 16.5 140 2.7
4 Adames, Willy Rays ss AA 568 .274 .323 21.3 129 2.6
5 Caratini, Victor# Cubs c/1b AA 480 .291 .248 16.7 130 2.0
6 Nido, Tomas Mets c HiA 370 .320 .192 11.4 138 1.8
7 Higashioka, Kyle Yankees c AA 416 .276 .332 17.5 143 1.8
8 Robinson, Drew* Rangers 2b/3b AAA 539 .257 .390 27.5 136 1.7
9 Leyba, Domingo# D-backs ss/2b HiA 548 .296 .238 15.3 116 1.3
10 Vargas, Ildemaro D-backs ss/2b AA 579 .305 .217 6.7 107 1.3
11 Barreto, Franklin Athletics ss/2b AA 525 .284 .240 17.9 112 1.3
12 Garver, Mitch Twins c AA 491 .270 .263 21.8 113 1.2
13 Urena, Richard# Blue Jays ss HiA 563 .295 .197 14.7 119 1.2
14 Robertson, Daniel Rays ss/2b AAA 511 .259 .232 19.6 103 0.8
15 Farmer, Kyle Dodgers c/3b AA 315 .258 .251 14.3 111 0.5
16 Knapp, Andrew# Phillies c AAA 443 .266 .216 24.2 103 0.4
17 Gallagher, Cam Royals c AA 346 .259 .223 15.0 103 0.4
18 Valentin, Jesmuel# Phillies 2b AA 511 .269 .238 15.7 103 0.2
19 Valera, Breyvic# Cardinals 2b/ss AAA 449 .304 .175 8.9 108 0.2
20 Read, Raudy Nationals c HIA 426 .262 .241 12.4 111 0.1
21 Mateo, Jorge Yankees ss/2b HiA 507 .254 .241 21.3 102 0.1
22 Calixte, Orlando Giants ss AAA 519 .274 .246 19.1 100 0.1
23 Riddle, J.T.* Marlins ss/2b AA 486 .276 .178 16.7 102 0.0
24 Reinheimer, Jack D-backs ss AAA 560 .288 .210 16.6 88 -0.1
25 Jimenez, A.J. Blue Jays c AAA 248 .241 .193 13.3 90 -0.4
26 Sosa, Edmundo Cardinals ss LoA 413 .270 .127 19.1 101 -0.5
27 Vielma, Engelb# Twins ss AA 397 .265 .171 17.6 85 -0.5
28 Camargo, Johan# Braves 2b/ss AA 491 .267 .164 16.7 105 -0.7
29 Munoz, Yairo Athletics ss/2b AA 414 .240 .183 18.4 82 -0.8
30 Nola, Austin Marlins ss AAA 407 .261 .188 13.8 92 -1.1
31 Guerra, Javier* Padres ss HiA 431 .202 .210 32.7 63 -2.3

Who’s No. 1?: The Cardinals signed lefthanded-hitting Dominican middle infielder Eli Alvarez on July 2, 2011. He hit just .205 in his 2012 debut, then played sparingly in 2013 and 2014 because of injuries. He began to make progress at Rookie-level Johnson City in 2015—he ranked as the No. 10 prospect in the Appalachian League—before experiencing a complete breakthrough at low Class A Peoria in 2016.

Alvarez ranked among the Midwest League leaders with a .323 average (fourth), 36 stolen bases (first), 36 doubles (second), a .404 on-base percentage (second) and a .476 slugging percentage (third). He runs and defends well at second base and is growing into average power.

• Best Hitter: Mets shortstop Amed Rosario hit .341 at high Class A St. Lucie (99th percentile), Indians catcher Francisco Mejia hit .347 at low Class A Lake County (99th) and Diamondbacks shortstop Ildemaro Vargas hit .354 at Triple-A Reno (99th).

• Best Power: Yankees catcher Kyle Higashioka recorded a .264 isolated slugging percentage at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (99th percentile).

• Best Speed: Yankees shortstop Jorge Mateo stole 36 bases, hit nine triples and scored 65 runs in 113 games at high Class A Tampa.


Corner Infield & Outfield

No Batter Org Pos Lvl PA AVG SecA SO% OPS+ WAA
1 Cozens, Dylan* Phillies of AA 586 .276 .470 31.7 153 4.3
2 Gomez, Miguel Giants 3b LoA 467 .330 .239 11.3 158 3.0
3 Palka, Daniel* Twins of AA 568 .254 .386 32.7 135 2.7
4 Aquino, Aristides Reds of HiA 526 .273 .324 19.8 136 2.6
5 Ervin, Phillip Reds of AA 505 .239 .377 17.4 127 2.2
6 Marmolejos, Jose* Nationals 1b HiA 579 .289 .311 19.5 141 2.2
7 Winker, Jesse* Reds of AAA 463 .308 .249 13.6 133 2.2
8 Lugo, Dawel D-backs 3b HiA 510 .311 .221 11.0 127 1.7
9 Skole, Matt* Nationals 1b/3b AAA 573 .244 .329 20.8 119 1.7
10 Cordero, Franchy* Padres of HiA 602 .290 .247 25.6 132 1.6
11 Engel, Adam White Sox of AA 582 .259 .318 22.5 118 1.6
12 Duenez, Samir* Royals 1b LoA 579 .284 .269 14.9 117 1.6
13 Cordell, Ryan Brewers of AA 445 .264 .319 21.8 117 1.5
14 Granite, Zack* Twins of AA 584 .295 .247 7.4 103 1.5
15 Osuna, Jose Pirates 1b/of AA 517 .279 .252 15.5 126 1.3
16 Peterson, D.J. Mariners 1b AA 504 .264 .273 23.6 125 1.2
17 Sierra, Magneuris* Cardinals of LoA 562 .307 .156 17.3 127 1.1
18 Guzman, Ronald* Rangers 1b AA 511 .274 .259 20.5 113 1.1
19 Hannemann, Jacob* Cubs of AA 327 .247 .326 16.8 121 1.0
20 Alford, Anthony Blue Jays of HiA 401 .236 .333 29.2 109 1.0
21 Brugman, Jaycob* Athletics of AAA 609 .285 .250 19.9 120 1.0
22 Andujar, Miguel Yankees 3b AA 570 .273 .211 12.6 115 0.8
23 Phillips, Brett* Brewers of AA 517 .229 .331 29.8 115 0.7
24 Brinson, Lewis Brewers of AA 434 .268 .278 20.0 101 0.7
25 Becerra, Wuilmer Mets of HiA 263 .312 .142 19.8 115 0.6
26 Bautista, Rafael Nationals of AA 607 .282 .227 15.5 90 0.4
27 Williams, Nick* Phillies of AAA 527 .258 .211 25.8 99 -0.1
28 May, Jacob# White Sox of AAA 321 .266 .173 22.4 87 -0.3

• Who’s No. 1?: Phillies right fielder Dylan Cozens led the minors with 40 home runs and 125 RBIs at Double-A Reading. The 6-foot-6, lefthanded-hitting slugger accessed his power completely in 2016 and hit numerous home runs to the opposite field and to straightaway center. Cozens, a 2012 second-round pick from high school in Scottsdale, Ariz., not only ranked first in the Eastern League in homers and RBIs but also among the leaders with 38 doubles (first), a .591 slugging percentage (first), 106 runs (first) and 61 walks (fifth).

• Best Hitter: Giants third baseman (and converted catcher) Miguel Gomez hit .371 at low Class A Augusta (100th percentile).

• Best Power: In addition to Cozens and his .315 isolated slugging percentage at Double-A Reading (100th percentile), two other outfielders ranked in the 99th percentile: Twins right fielder Daniel Palka with a .277 ISO at Double-A Chattanooga and Reds right fielder Aristides Aquino with a .246 ISO at high Class A Daytona.

• Best Speed: The two most notables here are White Sox center fielder Adam Engel, who stole 31 bases, hit nine triples and scored 56 runs in 74 games at Double-A Birmingham (and he produced similar results on a rate basis at Triple-A Charlotte), and Twins center fielder Zack Granite, who led the minors with 56 steals, hit eight triples and scored 86 runs in 127 games at Double-A Chattanooga.


Starting Pitcher

• The major league average for starting pitchers from 2014 to 2016 was 1.06 home runs per nine innings, 7.3 percent walks and 19.7 percent strikeouts.

No Batter Org Pos Lvl IP HR/9 BB% SO% ERA+ WAA
1 Enns, Dietrich* Yankees lhp AA 135 0.40 10.4 23.0 211 4.2
2 Jorge, Felix Twins rhp HiA 167 0.54 3.5 16.6 171 3.0
3 Lively, Ben Phillies rhp AAA 171 0.58 6.3 20.9 153 2.8
4 Castillo, Luis Marlins rhp HiA 132 0.21 4.8 19.8 156 2.7
5 Romero, Fernando Twins rhp HiA 90 0.10 4.3 26.1 189 2.6
6 Banda, Anthony* D-backs lhp AA 150 0.60 8.6 23.7 158 2.1
7 Wood, Hunter Rays rhp HiA 113 0.56 9.8 23.5 174 2.0
8 De Jong, Chase Dodgers rhp AA 147 0.92 6.8 22.7 134 2.0
9 Astin, Barrett Reds rhp AA 103 0.70 6.2 23.8 159 2.0
10 Hu, Chih-Wei Rays rhp AA 148 0.49 6.3 18.9 145 2.0
11 Pivetta, Nick Phillies rhp AA 149 0.73 8.3 22.4 125 1.9
12 Lockett, Walker Padres rhp HiA 164 0.38 3.6 18.3 134 1.9
13 Ramirez, Yefrey Yankees rhp HiA 124 0.65 6.5 26.8 124 1.8
14 Hader, Josh* Brewers lhp AAA 126 0.43 10.5 30.8 231 1.7
15 Garcia, Elniery* Phillies lhp HiA 118 0.61 7.6 19.1 128 1.6
16 Almonte, Yency Rockies rhp HiA 168 0.96 7.8 22.0 110 1.5
17 Slania, Dan Giants rhp AA 120 0.68 7.1 22.6 149 1.4
18 Voth, Austin Nationals rhp AAA 157 0.63 8.6 20.2 118 1.0
19 Stephens, Jackson Reds rhp AA 151 0.42 6.4 20.5 108 0.9
20 Anderson, Drew Phillies rhp HiA 70 0.39 7.9 28.0 137 0.8
21 Blackburn, Paul Athletics rhp AA 143 0.50 6.0 16.9 112 0.4
22 German, Domingo Yankees rhp HiA 50 0.54 5.6 19.2 113 0.3
23 Schultz, Jaime Rays rhp AAA 131 0.83 12.3 29.5 105 0.2
24 Herrera, Ronald Yankees rhp AA 137 0.66 6.6 22.9 98 0.2
25 Junis, Jake Royals rhp AA 149 1.09 5.5 23.1 106 0.1
26 Jaye, Myles Tigers rhp AA 162 0.72 6.0 19.9 94 0.0
27 Pruitt, Austin Rays rhp AAA 163 1.16 4.1 22.7 100 0.0
28 Flexen, Chris Mets rhp HiA 134 0.40 8.9 16.6 102 0.0
29 Travieso, Nick Reds rhp AA 117 0.85 10.4 17.8 93 -0.1
30 Baez, Sandy Tigers rhp LoA 113 0.56 5.8 18.4 91 -0.2
31 Tirado, Alberto Phillies rhp LoA 65 0.42 14.4 35.1 102 -0.2
32 Holmes, Clay Pirates rhp AA 136 0.66 10.7 16.9 98 -0.3
33 Smith, Nate* Angels lhp AAA 150 1.08 6.8 18.9 100 -0.3
34 Fried, Max* Braves lhp LoA 103 0.87 11.1 26.4 103 -0.3
35 Underwood, Duane Cubs rhp AA 73 0.86 10.6 18.8 92 -0.3
36 Mella, Keury Reds rhp HiA 139 0.52 9.3 16.5 109 -0.5
37 Appel, Mark Phillies rhp AAA 38 0.70 11.6 19.8 85 -0.6
38 Pinto, Ricardo Phillies rhp AA 156 1.15 7.7 15.2 100 -0.8
39 Borucki, Ryan* Blue Jays lhp LoA 136 0.73 6.7 20.5 135 -0.8
40 Gunkel, Joe Orioles rhp AAA 161 0.89 3.1 16.1 90 -1.0
41 Jemiola, Zach Rockies rhp AA 162 0.83 6.6 13.1 84 -1.1
42 Carle, Shane Rockies rhp AAA 111 0.73 6.4 17.5 95 -1.7
43 Sims, Lucas Braves rhp AA 141 0.96 14.6 25.2 102 -1.7

• Who’s No. 1?: Yankees lefthander Dietrich Enns finished runner-up for the minor league ERA title this year, recording a 1.73 mark in a career-high 135 innings and 22 starts in which he went 14-4 with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. As the 25-year-old continues to build experience after 2014 Tommy John surgery he might be able to improve his control. (He walked 3.7 per nine in 2016.) As it stands, Enns, a 19th-round pick in 2012 from Central Michigan, doesn’t have outstanding stuff—though he did have an outstanding year.

• Most Dominant: Brewers lefthander Josh Hader finished at or near the 100th percentile in two leagues this year in terms of strikeout rate. He fanned 32.7 percent of batters at Double-A Biloxi (100th) before striking out 29.3 percent at Triple-A Colorado Springs (98th). Rays righthander Jaime Schultz struck out 29.5 percent of batters at Triple-A Durham (98th), while Yankees righthander Yefrey Ramirez struck out 27.0 percent at high Class A Tampa (96th) and Yankees lefthander Dietrich Enns whiffed 26.1 percent at Double-A Trenton (96th).

• Best Control: Twins righthander Felix Jorge finished in the 97th percentile this year in terms of walk rate by issuing free passes to just 3.1 percent of batters at high Class A Fort Myers and then 4.0 percent of batters at Double-A Chattanooga. Orioles righthander Joe Gunkel, a 2015 trade pickup from the Red Sox for Alejandro De Aza, walked 3.1 percent of batters at Triple-A Norfolk (97th).

• Groundball Pitcher: Pirates righthander Clay Holmes earned a 40-man spot despite a 4.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at Double-A Altoona because of his extreme groundball rate: 63 percent of all balls in play, according to MLBfarm.com.


Relief Pitcher

• Because ERA does not accurately reflect a reliever’s value, I created a junk stat called weighted dominance (wDOM) to summarize his ability to limit home runs, hits and walks while racking up strikeouts. I assigned a 4-3-2-1 weighting system, using the hierarchy HR-SO-H-BB, to each reliever’s units above or below average for the given statistic. The resulting scale runs from zero to about 20 for this sample of relievers.

• The 2014 through 2016 major league averages for relievers were 0.93 homers per nine, 8.8 percent walks and 22.3 percent strikeouts.

No Batter Org Pos Lvl IP HR/9 BB% SO% wDOM WAA
1 Gallegos, Giovanny Yankees rhp AAA 78 0.58 5.8 36.1 19 2.7
2 Liranzo, Jesus Orioles rhp LoA 53 0.51 13.0 31.9 11 1.6
3 Hernandez, Ariel Reds rhp HiA 62 0.15 15.1 28.7 11 1.4
4 Steckenrider, Drew Marlins rhp AA 52 0.17 9.6 36.0 14 1.4
5 Rosario, Jose Cubs rhp AAA 54 0.17 7.5 20.6 2 1.4
6 Sherfy, Jimmie D-backs rhp AAA 56 0.97 11.1 36.6 13 1.3
7 Wahl, Bobby Athletics rhp AA 55 0.49 12.8 29.7 8 1.2
8 Moronta, Reyes Giants rhp HiA 59 1.07 8.2 38.3 14 1.2
9 Rhame, Jacob Dodgers rhp AAA 63 0.71 10.6 26.5 7 1.1
10 Middleton, Keynan Angels rhp HiA 66 1.23 10.3 32.5 11 1.1
11 Wick, Rowan Cardinals rhp HiA 45 0.20 10.9 31.0 9 0.9
12 Gonzalez, Rayan Rockies rhp AA 52 0.35 10.6 22.7 3 0.8
13 Bell, Chad* Tigers lhp AAA 98 0.37 10.4 21.3 3 0.8
14 Adams, Austin Angels rhp AA 44 0.41 13.0 34.2 9 0.7
15 Fry, Paul* Mariners lhp AAA 55 0.16 12.7 26.6 8 0.7
16 Goldberg, Brad White Sox rhp AAA 57 0.48 10.9 21.3 2 0.6
17 Martin, Kyle Red Sox rhp AAA 67 0.68 7.7 28.8 8 0.6
18 Vieira, Thyago Mariners rhp HiA 44 0.20 9.5 28.0 6 0.6
19 Ruiz, Jose Padres rhp SS 11 0.00 10.3 33.3 3 0.6
20 Paredes, Eduardo Angels rhp AA 70 1.03 6.8 25.3 4 0.5
21 Johnson, Chase Giants rhp AA 52 0.35 8.3 17.0 0 0.5
22 Leathersich, Jack* Cubs lhp AA 18 0.00 9.3 37.3 4 0.5
23 Neverauskas, Dovydas Pirates rhp AAA 58 0.16 9.3 23.6 5 0.4
24 Guduan, Reymin* Astros lhp AAA 56 0.48 14.7 25.1 5 0.4
25 Edwards, Andrew Royals rhp AAA 61 1.03 12.4 27.8 6 0.3
26 Alvarado, Jose* Rays lhp HiA 71 0.13 17.6 27.2 9 0.0
27 Ysla, Luis* Red Sox lhp AA 56 0.64 10.9 25.1 4 0.0
28 Moll, Sam* Rockies lhp AAA 49 0.91 8.8 20.5 0 -0.4
29 Stanek, Ryne Rays rhp AA 102 0.79 11.2 26.3 8 -0.8

• Who’s No. 1?: A 25-year-old Mexican righthander whom the Yankees signed for $100,000 in 2011, Giovanny Gallegos missed much of 2011 and 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He worked as a starter or swingman in 2013 and 2014 before becoming a full-time reliever in 2015. Gallegos’ career blossomed in 2016, when he recorded a 1.27 ERA to go with 106 strikeouts in 78 innings and a .175 opponent average at Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Compared with a league average pitcher this year with the same number of innings, Gallegos struck out 40 additional batters while allowing two fewer homers, 29 fewer hits and 11 fewer walks.

• Most Dominant: In addition to Gallegos’ strikeout rate of 36.1 percent, Giants righthander Reyes Moronta struck out 38.3 percent of batters at high Class A San Jose and Diamondbacks righthander Jimmie Sherfy struck out 36.6 percent at three levels, primarily Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno.

• Best Control: Gallegos walked just 5.8 percent of batters, followed by Reds righthander Barrett Astin with 6.2 percent at Double-A Pensacola and Angels righthander Eduardo Paredes with 6.8 percent at two levels, mostly Double-A Arkansas.

• Groundball Pitcher: Reds righthander Barrett Astin (63 percent groundball rate), Rockies lefthander Sam Moll (55 percent), Mariners lefthander Paul Fry (57 percent) and Giants righthander Chase Johnson (56 percent) are the best in this department.

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