Kyle Glaser Chat (6/26/18)
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody, happy Tuesday. Look forward to chatting with y'all. Let's get it started
- Do you see Griffin Canning making his major league debut soon?
Kyle Glaser: I do given the state of the Angels pitching and how injuries have just wrecked the staff – it's not even July and Felix Pena and John Lamb are currently starting games for them, and they’re bottom scraping the DFA/waiver wire for bullpen arms. Deck McGuire, Hansel Robles, etc. Even if it’s just as a two/three inning fireman out of the ‘pen, Griffin Canning can help the Angels a lot more than some of the arms they are turning to right now.
- Michel Baez's last 5 starts have looked good on paper. What are you hearing about him from scouts?
Kyle Glaser: The evaluations remain very, very lukewarm on Baez. His velocity is still down and his breaking balls have taken big, big steps back. He can’t really land either his slider or curveball with any consistency. He had the back issue in spring, but his struggles are mostly because his mechanics have gotten out of whack. He’s throwing more across his body, and it’s affecting his breaking balls and direction to the plate. It’s just very, very hard for 6-8 pitchers to stay mechanically in sync. There’s a lot of moving parts there. That all said, he’s finding a way to battle through, and if this is “bad” Baez, the “good” Baez can still be crazy good. He’s just got some mechanical things to sort through.
Bob (The OC):
- Is Mike Trout like Leo Messi? Really good player but doesn't know how to win?
Kyle Glaser: I really wish the eye roll emoji was available for use in this chat system.
Joey (Best Coast):
- When are the Padres going to tear down and start again? This clearly isn't working with Hosmer and Myers and Renfroe
Kyle Glaser: The Padres have about six spots in their lineup they need to upgrade massively before their proclamations of future contention can be taken seriously. The solution is bringing better players in AROUND the good ones, not once again getting rid of the few good ones you have, although they (and their fans) need to get real about Wil Myers’ actual ability and realize he’s a No. 6 hitter on a decent team, not a lineup anchor.
Kris (Jupiter, FL):
- what is the most likely position destination for Oneil Cruz and what is pro HR potential looking like? 25+ bombs/yr?
Kyle Glaser: It’s probably right field. And whether or not Cruz closes the giant holes that come with being 6-7 to get to his power is honestly a coin flip right now. You can see him doing it, but you can just as easily see him getting taken apart in HiA/AA.
Brusdar Graterol (Cedar Rapids):
- Where will I finish the year, both in terms of my level in the Twins' minor league system and in terms of the Baseball America top 100 prospects?
Kyle Glaser: Well, you’re already a top 5 prospect in the system and a Top 100 prospect. It’d be right around the same spot. There are a lot of other good players in the Twins system who are more advanced/polished, so it will be hard to jump them.
- 2 oriole players...one on the hot sheet this week, Ryan Mountcastle, and one last week, Ryan McKenna. How soon could we see them in birdland? And any comps for those 2 come to mind?
Kyle Glaser: Mountcastle is difficult because he just can’t throw. Like, I had heard about his arm, but I was shocked when I actually saw it. You can’t put him at third base, you can try and hide him in left field…but as soon as he has to start a relay or get a guy trying to stretch a single into a double, it can get ugly. McKenna has certainly had a breakout campaign, but it’s been at HiA and he’s nowhere near major league ready. Mountcastle will get there first, but it won’t be until his arm takes serious, serious jumps to become even remotely playable. That might not be until September or even next year. You’ll see DJ Stewart and Cedric Mullens and Drew Dosch make their ML debuts first before these guys.
- Kyle Tucker starting to show more power 11HR and has 13 SB, do you see him as a 5 tool player at the MLB level. Is .285 25HR 25SB a reasonable projection for him?
Kyle Glaser: .285 25/25 is a top-tier projection. .270 20/15 is a reasonable one. Either way Tucker has all the ability to be an above-average major league outfielder and strong contributor to a contending team.
- Is Luis Rengifo breaking out? His numbers for a 21 year old in AA are really impressive. Is he a major league regular or is the lack of power going to hold him back? Hit tool looks legit based on the numbers.
Kyle Glaser: It certainly has been a breakout campaign for Rengifo. He gets by more on savvy and instincts rather than big tools, but a middle infielder consistently puts the ball in play, gets the most from his speed and makes all the plays he should at both shortstop and second base is a guy who ends up in the major leagues. Most evaluators still see him as a middle infield backup/utility type, but you look around some of the guys getting everyday ABs playing the middle infield on second-division teams (Jose Peraza, Joey Wendle, etc.) and there’s no reason he can’t match them.
- What is a Forrest Whitley comparison? His stuff is great and has done nothing but impress since he’s been drafted.
Kyle Glaser: Just let Whitley be Whitley…and that’s someone with a chance to be a true No. 1 starter.
- This season, dodgers prospect Tony gonsolin and Dean kremer in Rancho cucamonga have a great season. Dean has a record of 13.50 k/9, 37.2k% and gonsolin has record of 2.77ERA. How likely are they to being starter in major league? And ceiling of them? And where they will rank in dodgers top 30 at the end of season
Kyle Glaser: Gonsolin was already highlighted in the Prospect Handbook as this year’s breakout prospect in the Dodgers system, and he’s lived up to it. He holds 94-96 mph into the sixth inning when he starts and is up to 99 in relief with a nasty split-change. Ultimately the expectation is he ends up in relief with those two pitches. Kremer is interesting as a starter candidate because he has the fastball, the control and two breaking balls that have promise, but his changeup needs work. If he can get that changeup, he’s got enough ingredients to make it as a back-end starter.
- A big power hitting 1B in Coors Field! From not even being on most top 20 prospect lists what do we make of Roberto Ramos' emergence this season? 35 HR type seasons in the bigs?
Kyle Glaser: Ramos definitely has opened eyes this year in terms of someone who you don’t have a ton of thought about to then realizing there really is something there. Evaluators don’t quite see the bat speed you’d prefer (slider bat speed, as one put it), but he’s got the strength and timing to make up for it somewhat. Ramos actually has a lot of similarities to Franmil Reyes as a big-bodied guy with big power and great makeup, except he’s lefthanded. That’s not an everyday player, but someone who can get to the majors and hit some bombs and help your team out, that will work. He just might need to go to an AL team in order to do so because he’s pretty strictly a 1B/DH type.
Neal (Columbia, SC):
- What are your thoughts on Ryan Vilade? Excelled in first chance at pro ball last year but is struggling a bit in Low A and has had some yips on defense. Worried or mostly a result of Asheville killing offensive power?
Kyle Glaser: Asheville doesn’t kill offensive power. It enhances it hugely. Vilade is swinging through a lot of fringe-average velocity (89-90) and it’s been a bad look in the infield, to the point most evaluators think he’ll have to go to left field because he’s just so thick and doesn’t move very well. Honestly, when we ask evaluators about that Asheville team, they don’t have Vilade as one of their top five pro prospects on that team. It’s been bad all around with not a lot to project on offensively or defensively.
Scott (Lake Geneva WI):
- In the case of an extreme hitting or pitching home environment how do you rate production? I'm thinking of the huge home/road splits for Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes in Colorado Springs.
Kyle Glaser: When you’re talking about elevation like Colorado Springs, just throw the home splits out altogether. Same with Lancaster or Las Vegas or Albuquerque.
Corey Ray (Biloxi):
- Have I done enough this year (116 +wRC) to make scouts believe again that I can be an average everyday player or do you think I'm headed for a 4th OF or platoon player role?
Kyle Glaser: There’s still not enough pure hitting ability to project an everyday major league outfielder, but even an extra outfielder is a vast improvement over last year. Give Ray credit for making some fixes.
- Jo Adell gets glowing reports regularly from BBA and Fangraphs, but both sources only give him a FV of 50. Is this because he's only 19 and probably 3 years away from the bigs? He seems like a ceiling of George Springer with likely outcome of Justin Upton. What am I missing?
Kyle Glaser: We at BA had a 60 on him. As usual, you should stick with us when it comes to prospects. And btw, even that might have been too light. We’ve spoken with two pro scouting directors who just had their scouts come back and put 70s on Adell. He’s got franchise player ability.
Scott (Lake Geneva):
- Jacob Nottingham is hitting well in Colorado Springs. Is he regaining some prospects status, or is it just the product of an extreme hitting environment? What is his future outlook?
Kyle Glaser: Nottingham has always had real power, it’s just a matter of him being able to get to it, and the strikeout to walk mark at Colorado Springs still doesn’t indicate great of success of that moving forward. Still, there’s always room somewhere for an athletic, power-hitting backup catcher, which is what he has a chance to be.
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- There's a lot of differing opinions within the Astros fan community regarding Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez and who the better prospect is. Can you settle this for us?
Kyle Glaser: The next evaluator we speak to that has Alvarez ahead of Tucker will be the first. Both are very bright young prospects. But one (Tucker) is a clear tier higher than the other.
Fabio (Riverside ca):
- Emilio Vargas is looking good. Should we wait to see how he does at double A before we buy in?
Kyle Glaser: It’s all fringy stuff so evaluators aren’t buying Vargas, but you have to respect a guy putting up the numbers he is pitching in Visalia, an underrated hitters park. As for now, he is regarded purely as an organizational arm.
- What would the return look like for Brad Hand? One Top 50 and another Top 100? What do you think of Hand to Cleveland for Mejia?
Kyle Glaser: The Padres are going to ask for a Top 50, a top 100 and probably one or two others. Whether they get that, I don't know. If it's not a pure prospect package, it's going to be young everyday major leaguer with big potential as well as a top prospect. What they want for him, and probably should hold him for, it something other teams are going to have a hard time parting with.
- Hey Kyle, What do you see as a future for Alec Hansen? He just started pitching this year, what does he need to do to shoot up prospect rankings and look like a potential future top of the rotation starter?
Kyle Glaser: Well Hansen is already on the cusp of the top 50 in the BA Top 100, so he's already pretty high up there, not much more he can do to "shoot up". But for him the big thing is just continuing to gain some consistency with his command and control. Some of that is going to be keeping his delivery in sync, not always easy at 6-7/ Now that he's going to be in AA for an extended period, facing guys who won't be intimidated by his big stuff, we'll have a much more accurate a barometer of where he is in his development.
- Where do you see the Braves biggest need? I’m hoping for pitching of some sort? But who would they target?
Kyle Glaser: Seeing as Johan Camargo has stepped in and done a fine job at third base (.831 OPS since they released Jose Bautista and gave Camargo the gig full-time), the biggest need is in the bullpen. The Braves rank 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA, and upgrades over Sam Freeman and Peter Moylan are definitely to be had
- Nick Madrigal>Luis Urias long term?
Kyle Glaser: We'll update our Top 100 with draft picks once the deadline has passed, and you can find out then
- Best guess as to what year Keibert Ruiz becomes the Dodgers #1 catcher? You don't see a lot of 22 and unders leading contending teams (Molina in 2005 may be most recent). But hard to see Ruiz still in back-up role 4 years from now.
Kyle Glaser: Ruiz has made huge strides with his defense this year, so that makes it more likely he'll be that rare No. 1 catcher in his early 20s. Receiving has become consistently above-average, he's fixed some of his transfer and footwork issues to get more consistent 2.0 pop times, and he's really taken big steps in the preparation/mental parts of catching. I imagine they'll ease him in towards the end of next year with Grandal gone, go more of a full split with him and Barnes in 2020, and he'll be getting the lion's share of the reps by 2021
- What type of package would it take the Braves to pry Blake Treinen away from the A's?
Kyle Glaser: Two prospects, one of them an arm Braves fans aren't going to want to give up. That might be Ian Anderson, depending on how many teams jump in and drive the reliever market up
- Kopech. Is it really as simple as throwing strikes? I know they were working on a changeup to start the year, any report on progress there?
Kyle Glaser: It's throwing strikes with his secondaries, to be more specific. You have to have the threat of landing your breaking ball for it to play, and right now that isn't there consistently. And his changeup....well, right now it's a 91-92 slower fastball with no life....it's got a long, long, long way to go.
- What do you think of Bryan Mata's performance so far this year? He's performing very well as a teenager in hi-A. Any chance he's a top 100 prospect soon?
Kyle Glaser: 47 walks to 50 strikeouts is alarming, at any age. He's not in the discussion for the Top 100, not even really close
Jon E (Iowa):
- Given his uneven results but solid velocity post-Surgery, what is Michael Fulmer’s trade value given his controllable years? Are Tigers better off waiting a year to see if he gets fully back on track? Or is this as good as he gets?
Kyle Glaser: Wait a year. What Fulmer gives to the Tigers as a 25-year old controllable power pitcher who even in his worst year is an above-average big league starter is more valuable to the franchise as a building block than a trade piece.
- Can you give us anything on Luis Patino? Undersized maybe, but pitching pretty well for an 18 yr old in full season A ball.
Kyle Glaser: Patino was always athletic and his velo has jumped from 90-95 to 93-98. Take that in combination with a power slider, and you've got a really promising young righthander
- Any updates on James Kapeilian? Will he pitch this year?
Kyle Glaser: Kaprielian started playing catch about two weeks ago, and the team is just playing it super cautious with him and taking it day by day. They don't even know the answer to will he pitch this year.
- How has Francisco Mejia's slow start this season changed his projection or expectations for you, if at all?
Kyle Glaser: The slow offensive start didn't really affect things. He's a 22 year old in Triple-A playing in freezing cold weather in April. Not surprised that once it thawed out at the end of May he started mashing again. But what's changed is his defense behind the plate has really, really stalled, to the point evaluators prefer Eric Haase as a catcher. Mejia can hit enough to play anywhere, but it just means he's going to need some time learning a new defensive position, which delays his ETA a bit. Still one of the top prospects in baseball, just a bit of a different dynamic and timeline now.
Mike (Marion, IL):
- What's your take on Dakota Hudson? Is he evolving into a top-of-the-rotation starter or is he more of a back-end rotation guy?
Kyle Glaser: Hudson's always been a back of the rotation guy, there was never a top of the rotation starter projection on him. He doesn't have the command for that, fastball is way too scattered and big league hitters will wait him out. But there's real velocity, his slider is a strikeout pitch, he gets ground balls and has the moxie to stay composed in big spots and work out of jams, which goes a long way. He'll settle in just fine as a quality fourth or fifth starter.
- A long ways away, but who you got? George Valera or Danny Diaz?
Kyle Glaser: Everything we're hearing on George Valera right now is pretty special
- What recently signed draft pick is off to a great start and has already bumped his status a bit? Or just who do you think was a great value later in the draft that has already signed?
Kyle Glaser: You mean a 2018 draft pick? Those guys have been playing for a week. No one should ever consider a player's stock rising or falling after one week of Rookie ball or short-season, ever.
- As a prospect, is Seth Beer more of a Keystone or a Blue Moon?
Kyle Glaser: Haha I like it. In the grand scheme of prospects, he's definitely not a Keystone or Natty Light. He's better than that for sure.
Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, think that will do it for today. Thanks for all your questions. Have a great rest of your week