Bukauskas Shows Pitchability

If you look at the box score from North Carolina ace J.B. Bukauskas’s performance on Friday night, you might think it was business as usual. The righthander struck out eight batters, walked four and allowed two runs on four hits in seven strong innings. But Bukauskas, battling a blister on his pitching hand, didn’t have feel for his usually lethal slider. Of his 112 pitches, he threw 80 fastballs and 10 changeups. Bukauskas went to the slider just 22 times.

“My game plan normally is to get ahead with the fastball and strike them out with the slider,” Bukauskas said. “But I feel like some people are catching on to that and not chasing the slider as much. I think tonight I was striking more guys out with fastballs and I was really happy with that, pitching off that more.”

In the past, Bukauskas has relied heavily on his slider, a bona fide plus pitch thrown in the mid-80s with exceptionally late break. The pitch lacked its hard-and-late bite on Friday, and it was more of a downward breaker than it’s been in the past, when Bukauskas has generated more horizontal shape to it, especially to his glove-side of the strike zone.

“I had been throwing the slider a little different, been getting a little too much depth on it and my finger was really bothering me,” Bukauskas said. “I had probably two or three that just got away from me but then towards the end I feel like it started coming back a bit. I started snapping ‘em off a little bit better and they were more like normal.”

Bukauskas labored through the first three innings, throwing 61 pitches. He had walked three batters and allowed four hits and two runs. He struck out Duke’s Peter Zyla with a slider to end the third, beginning a streak of 12 consecutive retired batters.

“I was really proud of this outing for me because of the ability to kind of lock it back in mid-game and end up giving us a quality outing,” Bukauskas said.

After the third, Bukauskas threw 51 pitches (40 fastballs). His velocity was strong early on, working at 92-96 early on and resting at 91-94 throughout the game. He didn’t have plus command, but after Bukauskas settled in, he worked both sides of the plate and was able to locate the pitch down and away from hitters consistently.

When throwing his fastball, Bukauskas will sometimes rush with his front side; his left leg can land further to first-base side of the mound. As a result, Bukauskas has a tendency to land upright and show batters the ball early.

“The whole thing for me is that when I fly open they can see the ball the whole entire time and it makes 95 look like upper 80s. You get to see it the whole way,” he said. “When I’m closed and my front side is going good (my fastball has) a little bit more run on it and a little more downward angle and it’s a lot more effective and I can locate it way better. That’s what I really tried to do in those late innings, work on those mechanical things.”

Evaluators who saw Bukauskas only on Friday wouldn’t come away with a complete understanding of who he is. On the right night, Bukauskas can show a 70-grade slider and limited fastball command. His changeup has always shown flashes; he hasn’t thrown it a ton in his time at North Carolina, but it shows the makings of an above-average or plus pitch, with late fading action and occasional feel for it down in the zone against lefthanded hitters. Bukauskas will sometimes throw his changeup with fastball arm speed, and he’ll occasionally slow things down.

Throughout the spring, scouts have brought up former Vanderbilt aces Sonny Gray and Carson Fulmer early in any discussions about Bukauskas and whether his ultimate role will be as a starter or a reliever. Bukauskas is listed at 6-foot, 201 pounds; Gray is 5-foot-10, 190 pounds and Fulmer is 6-foot, 195 pounds.

Skeptics are fearful of what he’ll look like when he’s tasked with pitching fifth every fifth day, as opposed to the once-a-week college schedule. They point to Fulmer, who lost velocity with that transition and needed to make significant mechanical changes to improve his control and command.

Optimists point to Bukauskas’s athleticism and relative youth. He has a very fluid motion with his lower half his delivery and looks like a plus runner when he comes off the rubber to field a ground ball or hustles to first base. As a high school junior, Bukauskas reclassified to graduate a year early; he won’t turn 21 until October. These factors give evaluators some reason to project improvements in Bukauskas’s future.

The starter-reliever question won’t be answered in the next couple weeks, and it’s unlikely to be a sure thing until Bukauskas is in the big leagues. His start on Friday was an encouraging sign, a positive data point in the full picture of his amateur career. He showed the pitchability to work through a lineup multiple times without his best stuff, staying composed and working to correct himself as the game progressed.

Notes

North Carolina shortstop Logan Warmoth went 2-for-5 on Friday. He showed quick hands with plus bat life in his follow-through. In Warmoth’s first trip to the plate, he attacked a 2-0 inside fastball and hit a laser line drive just foul. He then whiffed on two mid-80s sliders away that broke out of the outer third of the strike zone.

Warmoth smoked a line drive to left field on a middle-in fastball for a double in his second time up. He flew out to right in his third plate appearance, then struck out looking in his fourth, swinging over two good lefthanded changeups down and away. Leading off the 10^th against another lefthander, Warmoth swung and missed on a changeup to start the count, then fouled off the next one he got. When he got a fastball in the zone, he shot a line drive up the middle for a single. He then went first-to-third on a bloop single from freshman Ashton McGee, showing off his advanced baseball instincts.

Warmoth was rarely tested at shortstop, but he showed off his tools in the sixth inning. On a ball hit in front of him, Warmoth showed quick feet charging the ball, smooth hands fielding the hop and plus arm strength on an accurate throw to first base.

Tar Heels center fielder Brian Miller was mostly untested in the outfield. With Duke’s speedy Jimmy Herron on second base, Zack Kone hit a single up the middle in the first inning. Miller made an accurate throw to the plate to prevent Herron from scoring.

At the plate, Miller went 1-for-4 with a walk and a single. His hit came in the first inning, when Duke’s second baseman muffed a ground ball and Miller beat the throw to second. In the fourth inning, facing Duke senior Karl Blum, Miller watched an 0-0 changeup for strike one, then fouled six straight pitches before grounding out to shortstop—reaching first in 4.08 seconds. On a groundout in the seventh, Miller reached first base in 4.04 seconds.

Blum pitched well for the Blue Devils, and could be a solid senior sign for a pro team in June. He’s always been projectable—At the East Coast Pro Showcase in 2012, Blum was 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds. Back then, he pitched at 85-87 then and had shape to his low 70s curveball. He’s been a top prospect in the Atlantic Collegiate League for the past two summers. On Friday, the now 6-foot-5 righthander pitched at 90-92 for three innings, touching 93. He showed the ability to spot his changeup down in the strike zone and had three-quarter shape to his slurvy breaking ball.

Duke starter Ryan Day also showed potential, with some rhythm and athleticism to his simple delivery. The junior has been a two-way player for Duke throughout his career, but has become one of the team’s top pitchers this season. His fastball worked at 88-91 and touched 92. Day showed a hard, late-breaking slider at 82-85 that had the makings of a plus pitch at the next level. His command wavered in his second inning, but he did show the ability to change locations well to set up hitters.

Jimmy Herron is a draft-eligible sophomore for Duke, and he had a strong showing against Bukauskas. He walked in his first time up, then pulled a changeup down the left-field line for a double in the second. Herron grounded out in the fourth and reached first in 3.9 seconds, despite an awkward dive that probably cost him a 10th of a second.

Herron was a star quarterback recruit in high school but chose to play baseball for Duke. He has a muscular, physically imposing build with broad shoulders and full shoulders and biceps. Herron comes from a cold-weather state, having grown up near Philadelphia. As he’s seen more consistent at-bats, his power has progressed. He’d hit the gaps as a freshman but has shown more thump this season. Herron is playing left field in deference to Duke sophomore Kennie Taylor, but he is a plus-plus runner with some natural athleticism. He’ll need to continue working on his reads and routes in the outfielder, but he shows flashes defensively.

In order to be eligible for the draft, sophomores must turn 21 within 45 days of the conclusion of the draft. This year, that means they must have been born on or prior to July 29, 1996. Herron will turn 21 just two days prior to that deadline. Other draft-eligible sophomores in this series include North Carolina third baseman Kyle Datres and catcher Cody Roberts.

It isn’t clear whether teams have significant interest in trying to sign Herron away from Duke as a sophomore, but he could develop into a top-five rounds talent for 2018 if his offensive progress continues to trend in the right direction.